Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

Haiti appears to be on track to fulfilling its obligations under the IMF’s Staff Monitored Program, which runs until August 2018. The country is expected to implement a series of IMF-backed measures in coming weeks, including a phaseout of fuel subsidies and the replacement of a turnover tax with VAT. This should help unlock around USD 96 million in budget support grants from its international partners, as was agreed during a 21 April meeting between Haitian officials and representatives of the IMF and World Bank in Washington. The grant will help the country mitigate its budget deficit, currently financed by money creation.

Haiti Economic Growth

Reconstruction spending should lift growth this year, but it will remain impeded by high levels of corruption and the low resilience of infrastructure to seasonal hurricanes. The end of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians living in the U.S. in 2019 also threatens remittance inflows, which account for about a third of GDP. Met the why particular panelists foresee growth of 2.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel expects the economy to expand 2.7% in 2019.

Haiti Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.811.0
GDP per capita (USD)804819793705-  
GDP (USD bn)8.48.78.57.7-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.22.81.21.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.72.42.31.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.13.83.61.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.2-6.3-2.50.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.526.530.233.5-  
Money (annual variation in %)6.38.912.37.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.46.412.514.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.94.69.013.8-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0020.0020.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)43.8846.7556.7049.87-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)43.4745.2249.8763.30-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.4-9.0-2.8-1.2-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.8-0.2-0.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.2-  
Exports (USD billion)0.91.01.01.0-  
Imports (USD billion)3.33.73.43.2-  
Exports (annual variation in %)18.15.07.1-3.3-  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.111.1-6.0-7.6-  
International Reserves (USD)1.81.61.42.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.622.424.5-  -  

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Haiti Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate63.08-1.13 %May 16

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