Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

February 13, 2018

While the economy started 2017 on a solid footing, economic activity decelerated in the second half of the year, mostly due to the negative impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Although the recovery is expected to strengthen in the coming years, the U.S. administration’s recent decision to scrap Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians as of July 2019 threatens all-important remittance inflows, which account for around 34% of the country’s GDP. As a result of this decision, around 60,000 Haitians currently living in the U.S. could be forced to return to Haiti.

Haiti Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to gather steam this year on the back of higher government spending on reconstruction and healthy global growth. That said, high poverty levels and the sustained possibility of seasonal hurricanes remain key downside risks to the economic outlook. Met the why particular panelists foresee growth of 2.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel expects the economy to expand 2.7% in 2019.

Haiti Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)11.311.411.611.711.8
GDP per capita (USD)760804819793705
GDP (USD bn)7.88.48.78.57.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.94.22.81.21.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-5.22.72.42.31.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.26.13.83.61.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-7.2-6.3-2.50.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)16.321.526.530.233.5
Money (annual variation in %)8.26.38.912.37.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.63.46.412.514.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.35.94.69.013.8
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)7.0012.0012.0020.0020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)42.5543.8846.7556.7049.87
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)41.9543.4745.2249.8763.30
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.7-6.4-9.0-2.8-1.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.5-0.8-0.2-0.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.2
Exports (USD billion)0.80.91.01.01.0
Imports (USD billion)3.13.33.73.43.2
Exports (annual variation in %)0.818.15.07.1-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-7.18.111.1-6.0-7.6
International Reserves (USD)2.11.81.61.42.2
External Debt (% of GDP)14.818.622.424.5-  

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Haiti Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate63.84-1.13 %Feb 22

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