Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

The economy floundered throughout fiscal year 2018—which runs from October to September—and only marginally accelerated from 2017’s feeble showing. The improvement was due largely to more favorable weather conditions supporting agricultural output and solid construction activity as public investment projects almost doubled. In addition, consumption growth was buttressed by remittances, which were up nearly a fifth year-on-year and represent more than a third of Haiti’s GDP. These critical inflows, however, are threatened by the Trump administration’s move to end temporary protected status for 50,000 Haitians residents in July 2019. The decision is currently being challenged in a federal court, with a verdict expected after 1 March. On 11 December, the government presented its HTG 172.8 billion budget for FY2019 to parliament.

Haiti Economic Growth

Though growth should accelerate this year, rampant corruption, political instability and natural disasters remain key downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists foresee growth of 2.3% in 2019, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020.

Haiti Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.811.0
GDP per capita (USD)804819793705776
GDP (USD bn)8.48.78.57.78.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.22.81.21.51.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.70.92.31.22.7
Investment (annual variation in %)6.12.13.61.10.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.2-6.4-2.5-0.1-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.526.330.233.931.1
Money (annual variation in %)6.38.914.65.511.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.46.412.514.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.94.69.013.814.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)11.2511.2512.5013.3311.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)43.8846.7556.7067.3963.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)43.4745.2249.8763.3064.77
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-8.8-3.2-1.1-2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.2-2.6
Exports (USD billion)0.91.01.01.01.0
Imports (USD billion)3.33.73.43.23.6
Exports (annual variation in %)18.15.07.1-3.3-1.5
Imports (annual variation in %)8.111.1-5.9-7.713.6
International Reserves (USD)2.42.01.92.12.4
External Debt (% of GDP)18.622.424.528.2-  

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Haiti Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate77.69-1.13 %Jan 30

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