Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

November 6, 2018

The latest economic data suggests growth accelerated somewhat in the second quarter, but remained sluggish overall. The print was driven by a sharp upswing in the secondary sector, as manufacturing, and water and electricity production rebounded from the contractions registered in the first quarter. However, the primary sector shrank markedly after a solid performance in Q1, while service sector growth also softened. On the political front, the government should soon present its HTG 166 billion (USD 2.3 billion) draft FY 2019 budget—which runs from April to June—to parliament.

Haiti Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate next year, though the country’s prospects remain hampered by rampant corruption and political instability. The potential ending of the temporary protected status for Haitians in the U.S. after July 2019 is a significant downside risk, as it would also hit all-important remittance inflows. Met the why particular panelists foresee growth of 2.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% again in 2020.

Haiti Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.811.0
GDP per capita (USD)804819793705776
GDP (USD bn)8.48.78.57.78.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.22.81.21.51.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.70.92.31.22.7
Investment (annual variation in %)6.12.13.61.10.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.2-6.4-2.5-0.1-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.526.330.233.931.1
Money (annual variation in %)6.38.914.65.511.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.46.412.514.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.94.69.013.814.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)11.2511.2512.5013.3311.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)43.8846.7556.7067.3963.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)43.4745.2249.8763.3064.77
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-8.8-3.2-1.1-2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.2-2.6
Exports (USD billion)0.91.01.01.01.0
Imports (USD billion)3.33.73.43.23.6
Exports (annual variation in %)18.15.07.1-3.3-1.5
Imports (annual variation in %)8.111.1-5.9-7.713.6
International Reserves (USD)2.42.01.92.12.4
External Debt (% of GDP)18.622.424.528.2-  

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Haiti Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate72.16-1.13 %Nov 15

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