Guatemala GDP Q3 2015

Guatemala

Guatemala: Economy sees slight pickup in Q3

January 9, 2016

In Q3 2015, the economy expanded 3.9% over the same period of the previous year. The expansion marked an acceleration compared to the 3.4% increase tallied in Q2. The pickup was mainly driven by stronger fixed investment and private consumption, which more than compensated for a decrease in public spending and a poorer performance of the external sector.

Private consumption improved slightly, climbing 5.3% (Q2: +5.2% year-on-year). Fixed investment performed somewhat better, increasing 7.6% compared to the previous quarter’s rise of 7.3%. Conversely, government consumption fell by 2.4%, which marked the lowest reading since December 2004 and came in below Q2’s 2.0% contraction.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services in Q3 rose 6.2%, which followed Q2’s 3.5% increase. Imports accelerated sharply from a 7.1% increase in Q2 to a four-year high of 12.1% in Q3. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth deteriorated from minus 1.8 percentage points in Q2 to minus 2.8 percentage points in Q3.

Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.5% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.6%.


Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Guatemala GDP Q315

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and Met the why particular Consensus Forecast


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