Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

In April, growth in economic activity accelerated, on the back of a broad-based improvement in activity across domestic sectors, while annual remittances growth was strong, boding well for household income. In the same month, however, inflation jumped and exports fell, while import growth remained robust. This follows a generally weak first quarter in which the economic activity index averaged at the lowest level in a year. This came on the back of a noticeable pick-up in inflation in the period and markedly softer growth in remittances. Meanwhile, a new Congress and president will be elected on 16 June. This will mark the end to President Jimmy Morales’ corruption-scandal laden presidency as he is barred from running, although the elections have still been overshadowed by corruption allegations nonetheless. A run-off between Sandra Torres and Alejandro Giammattei on 11 August is expected.

Guatemala Economic Growth

Upbeat government consumption should ensure domestic demand remains strong, as growth is projected to be stable this year despite a drag on remittances owing to waning momentum in the U.S. economy. Moreover, rising political uncertainty could dent consumer and investor confidence. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.1% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Guatemala Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.615.916.316.616.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,4633,6653,9384,1264,467
GDP (USD bn)54.058.464.068.475.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.24.13.12.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.94.15.13.53.4
Investment (annual variation in %)1.54.45.92.73.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.54.63.73.01.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.9-1.4-1.1-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.624.724.324.223.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.08.79.56.68.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.43.03.14.25.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.33.42.44.54.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.004.003.003.002.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.847.607.637.527.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.867.747.667.607.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.6-2.1-0.21.51.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.4-1.2-0.11.01.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-6.1-5.6-5.2-6.0
Exports (USD billion)11.211.011.811.611.1
Imports (USD billion)16.417.116.415.817.1
Exports (annual variation in %)1.07.8-1.8-2.05.1
Imports (annual variation in %)3.84.3-4.1-3.98.5
International Reserves (USD)7.37.37.89.211.8
External Debt (% of GDP)31.933.131.631.0-  

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Guatemala Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate7.690.22 %Jun 13

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