Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

July 24, 2018

Economic data points to sustained momentum in Q2, albeit likely slower than Q1’s solid pace. The manufacturing PMI remained firmly entrenched in positive territory in June, with continued expansions in new orders and output boding well for business conditions. Economic sentiment slipped slightly in June, however, and the unemployment rate rose marginally in April. In recent bailout news, Germany delayed signing off on the final EUR 15.0 billion aid payment in disapproval of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ postponement of a VAT hike. The disbursement speed bump demonstrates how tightly watched Greece will be under the new surveillance regime upon completion of the bailout program in August and the challenges it may face to uphold its commitment to certain economic reforms. Dedication to unpopular austerity measures may be particularly difficult ahead of the next legislative election, to be held by the end of October 2019, when politicians will be seeking to shore up voter support.

Greece Economic Growth

The economic recovery should continue to broaden gradually over this year and next, driven by a stronger labor market and improving sentiment. The long-term outlook, however, partially hinges on the country’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline and minimize debt risks following its bailout exit. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 2.0% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% again in 2019.

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Greece Facts

Bond Yield4.330.76 %Aug 07
Exchange Rate1.160.65 %Aug 07
Stock Market761-1.46 %Aug 07

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