Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

December 20, 2018

Growth jumped to an over one-decade high in the third quarter, putting the country on track to record its strongest expansion since 2007 this year. A strong rise in inventories drove Q3’s acceleration, while other economic dynamics were more lackluster. Household spending growth was stable in the quarter, while government consumption and fixed investment both contracted. Although the economy has come a long way since the height of the crisis—as demonstrated by the unemployment rate, which hit a seven-year low in Q3—the recovery remains modest considering the depth of the country’s recession. Available data for the fourth quarter suggests that the economy’s momentum remains in place, reflected by the manufacturing PMI which hit a six-month high in November. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup greenlighted the 2019 budget at the start of December, the country’s first budget without the backdrop of a bailout program in over eight years. Notably, the budget excludes a planned pension cut that was supposed to take place in January.

Greece Economic Growth

Activity is seen remaining broadly stable in the coming years, supported by a tightening labor market and recovering business climate. That said, doubts remain over the country’s longer-term prospects and the government’s willingness to maintain rigid fiscal discipline and tough economic reforms. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.9% again in 2020.

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Greece Facts

Bond Yield4.870.76 %Jan 16
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 16
Stock Market623-1.46 %Jan 16

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