Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

May 28, 2019

Incoming data suggests that the soft dynamics at the end of last year carried over into the first quarter. Retail sales fell for the third straight month in February, which, combined with declining employment in January–February and persistent consumer pessimism in Q1, points to subdued household spending in the quarter. Metrics, however, were more upbeat in Q2: In April, the manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level in nearly two decades while confidence in the industrial sector improved. On the political front, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras—whose term ends in October—called snap general elections on 26 May after his Syriza party suffered a heavy defeat by the conservative New Democracy party in the European Parliament and local elections. Financial markets reacted positively to the news, with the 11-year government bond yield falling to a record low the following day. Meanwhile, polls indicate that New Democracy will win the election, which will likely be held in June or July.

Greece Economic Growth

Modest growth is expected for this year, mainly supported by domestic demand. Gradually declining unemployment and the recent minimum wage hike should prop up consumer spending, while investment activity is set to rebound amid an improving business climate. A sharper slowdown in the EU and a banking system still burdened by sour loans cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 1.8% again in 2020.

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Greece Facts

Bond Yield3.460.76 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Jun 13
Stock Market850-1.46 %Jun 13

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