Germany Economic Outlook
July 24, 2018Data for the second quarter paints a mixed picture. Industrial production rebounded with vigor in May—recording the largest month-on-month expansion since last November—while exports grew in the same month. In addition, consumer confidence remained elevated throughout the second quarter on strong income expectations and willingness to buy. This, combined with historically low unemployment levels during Q2, bodes well for private consumption in the quarter. However, business sentiment continued to drop in June, due to less upbeat business conditions. In addition, the services PMI averaged notably lower in Q2 compared to Q1, despite a rise in June. On the political scene, Chancellor Merkel survived a row with the CSU in early July by reaching a deal over the country’s asylum policy, which will see migrants sent back to the countries where they first applied for asylum. Although this boosts political stability in the short-term, the long-term success of the deal will depend on the government’s ability to reach bilateral deals with other countries, particularly Italy and Greece.
Germany Economic GrowthWhile political tensions at home have seemingly eased, escalating trade tensions with the U.S. could weaken the external sector. Despite this risk, the economy is expected to grow resiliently this year and next, shouldered by domestic demand. Strong above-inflation pay rises should spur private consumption, which ought receive a further boost next year with the increase in the minimum wage—if ratified by the government. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 2.1% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2019.
Germany Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.41||0.41 %||Aug 07|
|Exchange Rate||1.16||0.65 %||Aug 07|
|Stock Market||12,648||-0.41 %||Aug 07|
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Germany Economic News
August 8, 2018
External sector data for June showed a mixed picture, with weak month-on-month data but more positive annual data.
August 7, 2018
Industrial production contracted 0.9% in June over the previous month in seasonally-, price- and working-day adjusted terms, contrasting May’s downwardly revised, but still strong, 2.4% expansion (previously reported: +2.6% month-on-month).
July 26, 2018
The forward-looking consumer confidence indicator for August released by the GfK Group decreased slightly to 11.6 points, down from July’s 11.7 points.
July 25, 2018
Despite more positive economic data towards the end of the second quarter, in July business sentiment continued to ease, with the Ifo Business Climate Index decreasing slightly to 111.7 points from 111.8 points in June.
July 24, 2018
The German economy is seemingly regaining its footing after a disappointing start to the year.