Germany Economic Outlook
November 21, 2017Coalition talks failed on 19 November, likely due to differences over immigration policy. Analysts now see the possibility of new elections, which heightens political uncertainty. The news comes as preliminary data revealed an acceleration of growth in Q3 in both annual and quarter-on-quarter terms, beating expectations. Robust trade and investment did the heavy lifting, as private and public consumption appeared to have lost steam in the quarter. The slowdown is likely to be temporary; buoyant labor market dynamics and low inflation bode well for household consumption. Buttressed by positive momentum in Eurozone economies and the U.S., the external sector contributed positively to growth in Q3 despite a month-on-month contraction in both exports and imports in September. Indicators suggest that the positive streak is likely to continue through year-end: New orders grew at the fastest rate in over six years according to the October PMI. In the same month, business confidence reached its highest level in the history of the survey.
Germany Economic GrowthSolid momentum is expected to continue in 2018. Low interest rates and a strong labor market are likely to drive the private sector economy and household consumption, which should also benefit from increasing wages. Moreover, labor demands are outpacing labor supply, which bodes well for private consumption. Prolonged political uncertainty, however, poses a sizeable downward risk for both Germany and the EU. Analysts see GDP growth at 2.0% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.7% in 2019.
Germany Economy Data
5 years of Germany economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.30||0.41 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||1.18||0.65 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||12,999||-0.41 %||Dec 06|
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Germany Economic News
December 13, 2017
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in November compared to the prior month, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 13 December.
December 11, 2017
In seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms, Germany’s trade surplus decreased to EUR 19.9 billion in October from a revised EUR 21.9 billion in September (previously reported: EUR 21.8 billion).
December 7, 2017
In October, industrial production decreased 1.4% from the previous month in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, a sharper contraction that the previous month’s revised 0.9% drop (previously reported: -1.6% month-on-month).
November 28, 2017
The forward-looking consumer confidence indicator published by the GfK Group was held steady in December at 11.7 points, mirroring last month’s figure.
November 24, 2017
German business confidence increased from 116.7 points in October to 117.5 points in November, beating market expectations and setting a record in the history of the survey.