Germany Economic Forecast

Germany Economic Outlook

September 26, 2017

Germany went to the polls on 24 September, timidly endorsing Chancellor Angela Merkel for a fourth term, with her CDU party receiving the largest share of the vote. The SPD, Merkel’s current coalition partner, suffered a humiliating defeat and has ruled out forming a coalition with the CDU, so it will take on the role of lead opposition party. The nationalist AfD party came in third place, marking the first time since 1960 a far-right party has entered the Bundestag. Ms. Merkel will now attempt to form a coalition with the Greens and the liberal FDP; negotiations could stretch into early next year. Markets reacted negatively to the news, and the euro had its worst day of the year. In the longer term, however, the election should have little impact on the country’s economic performance, which continues to benefit from solid fundamentals. Business and consumer confidence remain high, which has translated into robust retail sales and industrial production.

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Germany Facts

Bond Yield0.11-9.38 %Oct 13
Exchange Rate1.18-0.09 %Oct 13
Stock Market12,9920.07 %Oct 13

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Germany Economic Growth

September 26, 2017

Economic growth is expected to be broad-based heading into next year. Tight labor market conditions should yield higher wage demands in upcoming collective bargaining rounds, while fixed investment should start picking up on the back of sustained business confidence. The external sector should also continue providing solid support, thanks to the global economic upswing currently underway. Our panel expects GDP will grow 2.0% in 2017. For 2018, the panel expects GDP growth of 1.8%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Germany Economic News

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