Germany Economic Outlook
March 26, 2019After narrowly avoiding a technical recession last year, data from the first quarter of 2019 is mixed. The domestic economy should have benefited from low unemployment through February, robust service sector activity through March and improving consumer confidence in the quarter. The export-orientated manufacturing sector, however, suffered amid a more challenging economic climate in the Eurozone and more broadly. Export growth was flat in January while the downturn in the manufacturing sector intensified through March on dropping foreign demand for German goods. Weak demand from the automotive sector further drove the ongoing downturn in March and the manufacturing sector consequently dragged on the composite PMI in the quarter. In light of the gloomier Eurozone outlook, investors flocked to German bunds, driving its yield to below zero on 22 March for the first time in over two years.
Germany Economic GrowthRobust domestic demand, in part due to the government’s more fiscally expansionary budget that includes a higher minimum wage, should support economic growth this year. A strong labor market will further underpin resilient private consumption. Global trade tensions, a slowdown in China and Brexit uncertainty cloud the outlook, however. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 1.0% in 2019, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.
Germany Economy Data
5 years of Germany economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.05||0.41 %||Apr 12|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Apr 12|
|Stock Market||12,000||-0.41 %||Apr 12|
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Germany Economic News
April 11, 2019
Harmonized consumer prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in March, matching the price increase in February.
April 8, 2019
The seasonally- and calendar-adjusted trade surplus rose from EUR 18.6 in January to EUR 18.7 in February, driven by a stronger fall in imports than exports.
Germany: Industrial production rebounds in February, but manufacturing sector continues to remain limp
April 5, 2019
Germany’s industrial sector rebounded in February with output growing 0.7% month-on-month, contrasting the revised flat reading in January (previously reported: -0.8% month-on-month).
March 26, 2019
Sentiment among German consumers is expected to ease in April according to the GfK Group Consumer Climate Index, which edged down to 11.4 from a revised 11.7 in March (previously reported: 11.8).
Germany: Business confidence improved for the first time in seven months, but remained in pessimistic territory
March 25, 2019
After free-falling since September last year, business sentiment showed signs of recovering: The Ifo business climate index increased to 99.6 in March from 98.7 in February, which had marked the lowest reading in nearly two years.