Germany Economic Forecast

Germany Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

Signs are emerging that last year’s strong economic momentum waned somewhat in the first quarter of this year. Industrial production weakened in February due to a sizable contraction in manufacturing output, following a disappointing start to the year. Meanwhile, business confidence continued to moderate on the back of less favorable business expectations. On a more positive note, the composite PMI increased slightly in April on the back of improvements in the services sector, and consumer confidence remained elevated throughout the first quarter. Consumer sentiment is underpinned by record low levels of unemployment, reinforcing private consumption; annual growth in retail sales is expected to have picked up pace in the first quarter. A moderation in economic activity is therefore expected to be temporary.

Germany Economic Growth

Both private expenditure and government expenditure are expected to remain resilient this year on the back of the government’s proposed fiscal stimulus package. Household consumption should further benefit from strong wage increases, as evidenced by recent wage settlements in the industrial and private sector. Furthermore, fixed investment and external demand should pick up, although downside risks to external demand remain present; the strong euro and rising protectionism in the U.S. and a possible escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China could affect export growth. Analysts see GDP expanding 2.4% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.0% in 2019.

Germany Economy Data

Population (million)80.881.281.782.782.8
GDP per capita (EUR)35,04736,06437,09437,817-  
GDP (EUR bn)2,8312,9283,0303,129-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)  
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)  
Unemployment Rate6.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)77.574.971.268.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.5-1.7-2.31.0-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.05-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.21-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.33-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)190218260262-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)200216242249-  

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Germany Facts

Bond Yield0.520.41 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Stock Market13,078-0.41 %May 18

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