Finland Economic Forecast

Finland Economic Outlook

November 21, 2017

A flash estimate showed strong quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 1.1% in Q3. Although a breakdown by components is still outstanding, growth was likely driven by broad-based expansions across both the domestic and external sectors. The former saw robust private consumption growth outperform expectations in the first half of the year due to rising employment and subdued inflation, and retail sales data for the July-to-September period suggests the trend extended into Q3. The external sector has benefited from improving economic conditions in neighboring trading partners as well as competitiveness gains stemming from the government’s structural reform program aimed at lowering labor costs. Looking into the fourth quarter, data remains upbeat. The economic sentiment indicator was steady in October at September’s over six-year high, while consumer confidence in the same month remained unusually strong, easing only slightly from September’s print.

Finland Economic Growth

The economy remains on track to record its strongest expansion in seven years in 2017. Next year, a stronger euro will weigh on the competitiveness of Finnish goods abroad, which should limit the external sector’s contribution to growth. Additionally, the government’s fiscal consolidation drive and somewhat stronger price pressures will likely dampen households’ purchasing power. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 1.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, analysts expect GDP to expand 1.6%.

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Finland Facts

Bond Yield0.473.70 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate8.27-0.38 %Dec 06
Stock Market3,8880.0 %Dec 06

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Finland Economic News

  • Finland: Growth moderates in Q3, but remains firm

    December 1, 2017

    According to preliminary data released on 1 December, the economy lost momentum in the third quarter.

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  • Finland: Current account surplus narrows in September

    November 15, 2017

    The current account surplus was EUR 0.08 billion in September, considerably below the EUR 0.23 billion surplus recorded in August, but above the EUR 0.02 billion surplus recorded in September 2016.

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  • Finland: Economic growth quickens in September

    November 14, 2017

    In September, economic activity grew a working-day adjusted 3.8% over the previous year—up from August’s revised 3.7% rise (previously reported: +2.7% year-on-year)—according to the latest monthly Trend Indicator of Output released by Statistics Finland.

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  • Finland: Economic activity slows in August

    October 13, 2017

    In August, economic activity grew by a working-day adjusted 2.7% over the previous year—down from July’s revised 3.6% rise (previously reported: +3.1%)—according to the latest monthly Trend Indicator of Output released by Statistics Finland.

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  • Finland: Current account surplus steady in August

    October 13, 2017

    Finland’s current account surplus amounted to EUR 0.23 billion in August, almost unchanged from the revised EUR 0.25 billion surplus recorded in July (previously reported: EUR 0.16 billion). In the 12 months leading up to August, the current account deficit totaled EUR 0.52 billion, very close to July’s cumulative deficit of EUR 0.51 billion. However, the trade balance improved in August over the previous month, recording a EUR 238 million surplus compared to July’s EUR 75 million surplus.

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