Finland Economic Forecast

Finland Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

Overall, the economy remains in shipshape following last year’s solid fourth quarter. Unemployment fell in March to the lowest rate in just over five years, while consumer confidence remained high. In February, annual growth in economic activity was buttressed by production in the manufacturing and construction sectors. The services sector also grew in February, but output in the primary sector contracted. Meanwhile, the defection on 24 April of a lawmaker from the Blue Reform party to the National Coalition Party—which together with the Centre Party forms the current three-party coalition government—caused political tremors. The government plans to pass major reforms through parliament in June to reduce its annual spending bill and ultimately trim debt below 60% of GDP. If the reforms are not passed, however, the prime minister has threatened to dissolve the government.

Finland Economic Growth

This year, economic growth is expected to weaken but strong private consumption should help cushion the slowdown. Moreover, accommodative monetary policy and high business confidence should support fixed investment. The government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation will constrain public consumption growth, however. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2019.

Finland Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.55.55.55.5
GDP per capita (EUR)37,47037,69338,28839,049-  
GDP (EUR bn)203205211214-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.8-0.60.31.5-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.1-0.11.42.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.81.52.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-4.9-2.61.15.2-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.1-2.70.81.5-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.5-1.33.22.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.2-1.9-1.22.3-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.0-1.20.51.6-  
Unemployment Rate8.28.79.48.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-3.2-2.7-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)56.560.263.763.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.51.0-0.20.4-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.21.2-0.20.4-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.4-1.0-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.0-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)28.35.412.49.6-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.05-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.11-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.6-1.3-0.6-1.1-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-3.3-2.6-1.2-2.3-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)0.31.22.00.6-  
International Reserves (EUR)8.28.89.211.0-  
External Debt (% of GDP)201-  -  -  -  

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Finland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.773.70 %May 16
Exchange Rate8.08-0.38 %May 16
Stock Market4,2740.0 %May 16

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