Eurozone Economic Forecast

Eurozone Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

The Eurozone economy appears to have hit a speed bump in the first quarter, with monthly indicators pointing to a deceleration in activity after a robust spell of growth in 2017. Industrial production plummeted in February, and economic sentiment dropped in March. In addition, the composite PMI fell to an over one-year low in March and hovered there in April, suggesting that the soft patch may have leaked over into Q2. On the political front, wrangling over the 2021–2027 EU budget is set to begin, and the European Commission will present its draft proposal on 2 May. The budget will likely contain some cuts to spending programs and larger national contributions, in part due to the UK’s exit from the bloc, which is set for March 2019.

Eurozone Economic Growth

Soft incoming data led Met the why particular panelists to downgrade their view of the Eurozone economy this month, following six consecutive upgrades. Growth is seen remaining healthy in 2018, supported by an improving labor market, accommodative monetary policy and firm investment. That said, an uncertain political scene and global trade tensions could dent confidence, while exports are expected to lose steam due to a strong euro. The panel now sees the Eurozone economy growing 2.3% this year, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, GDP is forecast to grow 2.0%.

Eurozone Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)331333334336337
GDP per capita (EUR)29,97930,43431,31832,003-  
GDP (EUR bn)9,93211,13611,47411,745-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.21.21.91.7-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-0.61.21.92.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.81.82.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.51.53.23.7-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.24.46.23.0-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.44.96.34.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.70.82.11.4-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.61.53.12.2-  
Unemployment Rate12.011.611.911.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-2.6-2.1-1.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)91.492.090.389.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)0.45.0-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.9-0.20.21.1-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.40.40.00.2-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.2-1.5-2.7-2.3-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.0-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)19.11.75.51.6-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.381.211.091.05-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.331.331.111.11-  
Current Account (% of GDP)2.22.53.23.5-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)219250336373-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)207241350376-  

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Eurozone Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Stock Market1,243-0.52 %May 21

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