Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

Recent reports show that capital spending in April–July contracted sharply in annual terms, as the government tries to encourage private enterprise and reduce the role of the state in the economy. This translated into a narrower fiscal deficit, along with a decline in imports and a lower current account deficit, despite a sizable fall in exports—especially of agricultural products and gold. Meanwhile, there was more good news in the political arena. In mid-October, the government signed a peace deal with rebels in the oil-rich eastern region. Later in the month, parliament approved Sahle-Work Zewde to become the country’s first female president—a further sign of political openness from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Growth should remain robust in FY 2018, although is likely to slow somewhat as the government restrains public investment growth to limit imports. That said, an improving business environment following market-friendly economic reforms could propel stronger activity in the private sector. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 8.2% in FY 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.6% in FY 2019.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)611731807884-  
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.480.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.411.48.011.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-1.9-2.4-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.854.055.056.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.121.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.111.06.713.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.411.17.39.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.1127.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.9024.07
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-8.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-6.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-  
Exports (USD billion)3.03.42.92.8-  
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.9-  
International Reserves (USD)2.53.23.43.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.625.327.828.6-  

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate27.910.01 %Nov 15
Stock Market0.20.0 %Nov 09

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