Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

September 19, 2017

Growth is likely to have dipped in FY 2016, which ended on 7 July, as a significant drought affecting agricultural production depressed exports and consumer spending. However, the economy’s underlying fundamentals remain strong, and concerted government efforts to turn Ethiopia into the continent’s leading manufacturing hub are paying off. The country is attracting sizeable inward investment, particularly from key partner China, which is investing heavily in infrastructure projects. In August, the government announced an agreement to develop a port facility in Sudan. This should reduce reliance on Djibouti for access to global shipping lanes, helping diversify and expand the country’s international trade.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)85.687.088.389.891.2
GDP per capita (USD)554611731807-  
GDP (USD bn)47.455.664.672.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.911.311.48.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.6-2.5-1.9-2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.446.354.654.956.9
Money (annual variation in %)32.322.329.121.725.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)15.07.77.111.06.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)22.88.17.411.17.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)18.2719.0520.3321.2622.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)17.7818.7219.7220.7621.90
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-6.1-11.0-11.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-3.4-7.1-8.0-8.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-8.5-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6
Exports (USD billion)3.23.03.42.92.8
Imports (USD billion)11.812.115.416.716.4
Exports (annual variation in %)6.3-7.613.1-13.4-3.6
Imports (annual variation in %)41.22.627.28.8-1.9
International Reserves (USD)2.42.53.23.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.122.625.728.2-  

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate27.300.16 %Oct 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Oct 13

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Ethiopia Economic Growth

September 19, 2017

Strong public spending and solid FDI inflows should lead to robust growth over the next few years. Analysts expect GDP to grow 7.3% in FY 2017, up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in FY 2018.

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