Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

April 24, 2018

New Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was sworn in on 2 April and immediately reshuffled cabinet posts to stifle unrest in one of Africa’s fastest growing economies. Abiy named 11 new ministers in the overhaul but kept the former finance minister in place. The previous prime minister resigned in February in a bid to cool ethnic and political tensions and open the way for economic reforms. Ethiopia has been engulfed by a tense political atmosphere due to anti-government protests in the Oromia and Amhara regions. Abiy has stated that he will focus on tackling corruption, improving national unity and reducing bureaucracy, as well as gradually expanding civil rights. Despite a tense political backdrop, the latest signs point to robust growth, with exports expanding firmly in Q3 2017 and solid FDI inflows in the first half of FY 2017.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Met the why particular analysts see the economy growing 8.3% in FY 2017. Healthy FDI inflows and strong public investment should keep activity buoyant in FY 2018, and our panelists see GDP expanding 7.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)611731807-  -  
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.4-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.311.48.0-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.5-1.9-2.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.354.654.956.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.111.06.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.411.17.3-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.11-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.90-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-8.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-  
Exports (USD billion)3.03.42.92.8-  
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.9-  
International Reserves (USD)2.53.23.4-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.625.728.2-  -  

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate27.520.01 %May 16
Stock Market0.70.0 %May 08

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