Ethiopia Economic Outlook
November 14, 2017The economy remains one of the fastest growing in the region, supported by a strong expansion in public infrastructure spending. Moreover, the country’s gradual integration into regional value chains is expanding productive capacity. Citing steady growth, on 20 October S&P Global Ratings affirmed Ethiopia’s credit rating at B/B. Nevertheless, the important role played by state-owned enterprises in the realization of infrastructure projects could result in inefficiencies. Furthermore, episodes of drought in Q3 have hit agriculture production, as evidenced by the rise in food prices registered in the last few months. On top of that, the country’s high external financing needs and bulky external debt could generate financial turbulence in the event of an external shock, especially if the gradual depreciation of the currency persists.
Ethiopia Economic GrowthGrowth will remain brisk going forward, helped by weather-related improvements in the agricultural sector and the scaling up of public capital outlays. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 7.3% in both FY 2017 and FY 2018.
Ethiopia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||554||611||731||807||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||47.4||55.6||64.6||72.4||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||9.9||11.3||11.4||8.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-2.0||-2.6||-2.5||-1.9||-2.9|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||42.4||46.3||54.6||54.9||56.9|
|Money (annual variation in %)||32.3||22.3||29.1||21.7||25.1|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||15.0||7.7||7.1||11.0||6.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||22.8||8.1||7.4||11.1||7.3|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||18.27||19.05||20.33||21.26||22.11|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||17.78||18.72||19.72||20.76||21.90|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-5.8||-6.1||-11.0||-11.1||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.8||-3.4||-7.1||-8.0||-8.0|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-8.5||-9.1||-12.0||-13.8||-13.6|
|Exports (USD billion)||3.2||3.0||3.4||2.9||2.8|
|Imports (USD billion)||11.8||12.1||15.4||16.7||16.4|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||6.3||-7.6||13.1||-13.4||-3.6|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||41.2||2.6||27.2||8.8||-1.9|
|International Reserves (USD)||2.4||2.5||3.2||3.4||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||22.1||22.6||25.7||28.2||-|
5 years of Ethiopia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||27.46||0.01 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||0.8||0.0 %||Dec 06|
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