Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Available data paints a mixed picture for the fourth quarter of 2018. Industrial output growth accelerated to a 17-month high in November, propped up by robust expansions in the energy and manufacturing sectors. In a similar fashion, retail sales rebounded sturdily in November, against the backdrop of lower inflation. On the external front, metrics were also encouraging: Goods export growth accelerated to a four-month high in November as booming demand from non-EU countries more than compensated for waning appetite from the EU. On the other hand, survey-based indicators draw a less rosy picture in Q4. Consumer sentiment remained entrenched in negative territory in December. Moreover, business confidence deteriorated again in the same month, in anticipation of a further deterioration in competitiveness due to sustained tightening of labor market conditions.

Estonia Economic Growth

Robust domestic demand will support growth this year, although the overall expansion is seen losing traction amid cooling construction activity and softer external dynamics. On the domestic side, tight labor market conditions and moderating inflationary pressures should prop up private consumption growth, while sustained capital inflows from EU cohesion funds are expected to bolster fixed investment. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.

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Estonia Facts

Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 30
Stock Market1,211-0.38 %Jan 30

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