Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

The economy appears to be in good shape approaching the end of this fiscal year. In April, foreign reserves hit a record high, and Egypt successfully held its first euro-denominated public debt issuance. Since the government embarked on its IMF-backed structural reform program in November 2016, foreign reserves have been on an upward trend. This trend continued in April as investors banked on the reform progress that has seen the pound freely floated and the twin deficits trimmed. In the same month, business conditions in the non-oil private sector improved for the first time since last November on the back of higher new business orders and stable output. Meanwhile, in late April, a second production unit came online at the offshore Zohr gas field. The new unit will double the field’s output capacity, bringing Egypt a step closer to ending its dependency on LNG imports.

Egypt Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate this year and next. Investment will support the economy, boosted by an improved regulatory environment—thanks in large part to several recent measures, such as new investment, bankruptcy and industrial licensing laws. In addition, the external sector will continue to benefit from the weaker pound. However, the elevated debt burden and sizeable budget deficit continue to pose downside risks. Met the why particular analysts expect GDP to expand 4.8% in FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.0% in FY 2019.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.686.889.090.293.1
GDP per capita (USD)3,3803,4743,7173,724-  
GDP (USD bn)286302331336-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.02.24.44.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.84.13.14.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.7-8.59.3-8.8-  
Unemployment Rate13.313.212.812.6-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-13.7-12.1-11.5-12.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1113-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.915.818.639.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.711.111.123.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.511.111.413.8-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.75-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.13-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7111.09-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.7-5.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-  
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.7-  
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.4-  
International Reserves (USD)15.016.720.117.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)15.115.314.516.6-  

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.310.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate17.910.0 %May 21
Stock Market1,6310.53 %May 21

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