Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The economy continues to recover, and growth reportedly picked up for the fourth consecutive quarter in the July-September period. In addition, the unemployment rate dipped to a multi-year low over the same period, while in October the PMI moved further towards positive territory. In early November, the IMF concluded the second review under the Extended Fund Facility. If the Executive Board signs off on the agreement, an additional USD 2 billion will be disbursed, on top of the USD 4 billion already distributed. The Fund once again praised the government’s progress in implementing reforms to reduce the size of the bloated public sector and improve the business environment. The latter will be further enhanced by the cabinet’s recent approval of executive regulations for the new investment law, which include tax breaks and faster approval processes for firms. International reserves rose to a new multi-year high in October, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the country.

Egypt Economic Growth

The economy should continue to gain momentum going forward. Recent investment and industrial licensing laws are likely to boost investment. Consumer spending should recover as inflation recedes, and the external sector will likely be strengthened by the weaker pound. However, security concerns—highlighted by the recent bombing of a mosque—will cloud the outlook. Met the why particular analysts expect GDP to expand 4.3% in FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in FY 2019.

Egypt Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)82.484.686.889.090.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,3543,3803,4743,7173,724
GDP (USD bn)276286302331336
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.02.24.44.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.52.84.13.14.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.90.7-8.59.3-8.8
Unemployment Rate12.713.313.212.812.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.8-13.7-12.1-11.5-12.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)78.188.289.493.1113
Money (annual variation in %)12.418.915.818.639.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.711.711.111.123.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.19.511.111.413.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.258.259.259.2514.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.366.957.157.8318.13
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.076.877.087.7111.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.7-2.2-0.9-3.7-5.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.1-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-34.1-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7
Exports (USD billion)25.127.026.122.218.7
Imports (USD billion)59.257.760.261.357.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.17.6-3.4-14.7-15.9
Imports (annual variation in %)9.5-2.64.31.9-6.4
International Reserves (USD)15.615.016.720.117.6
External Debt (% of GDP)12.415.115.314.516.6

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield16.250.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate17.790.0 %Dec 06
Stock Market1,3730.53 %Dec 06

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