Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

The economy strengthened in FY 2018, which ended in June, and the implementation of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s structural reforms has continued in recent months. In April–June, annual economic growth was unchanged from the multi-year high recorded in January–March. Moreover, in the July-to-March period, the current account deficit narrowed year-on-year by nearly 60% thanks to higher tourism revenues, remittance inflows and Suez Canal income. More recently, the government hiked the price of natural gas by up to 75% on 21 July. The hike comes into effect from August and should improve the fiscal balance. To help alleviate the pressure of higher prices on the poorest Egyptians, the FY 2019 budget, which came into effect in July, contains provisions such as the expanded use of cash transfer and food subsidy programs.

Egypt Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a solid pace in FY 2019. This is due to higher investment on the back of increased government spending and an improved regulatory environment. Moreover, the external sector should continue to benefit from the weaker pound. However, large fiscal imbalances and the higher price of oil will weigh on prospects. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 5.1% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in FY 2020.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,1173,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.94.44.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.34.43.14.64.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.41.78.611.211.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.11.7
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.1-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1113-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.711.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.511.111.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.7518.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7111.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-15.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-36.6
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.721.7
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.458.3
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.915.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.41.5
International Reserves (USD)17.115.416.524.337.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.015.114.416.733.7

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield17.500.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate17.890.0 %Aug 15
Stock Market1,4870.53 %Aug 15

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