Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

The economy continues to firm up, thanks to the government’s bold reform agenda and improved international competitiveness due to a weaker pound. In August, the non-oil private sector PMI climbed closer to positive territory on the back of greater new export orders, and international reserves rose for the eleventh straight month to USD 36.5 billion in September, signaling renewed investor confidence. In September, the IMF praised the government’s progress on structural reforms, which have included new investment and licensing laws designed to attract more foreign investment. As a result, the country is likely to receive the third tranche of bailout funding following a second program review in November this year. However, inflation is painfully high, fanned by recent fuel and electricity subsidy cuts and a rise in VAT, which is hurting Egyptian consumers and dampening private consumption.

Egypt Economy Data

Population (million)82.484.686.889.090.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,3543,3803,4743,7173,724
GDP (USD bn)276286302331336
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.90.7-8.59.3-8.8
Unemployment Rate12.713.313.212.812.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.8-13.7-12.1-11.5-12.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Money (annual variation in %)12.418.915.818.639.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.711.711.111.123.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.19.511.111.413.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.366.957.157.8318.13
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.076.877.087.7111.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.7-2.2-0.9-3.7-5.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.1-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-34.1-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)59.257.760.261.357.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.17.6-3.4-14.7-15.9
Imports (annual variation in %)9.5-
International Reserves (USD)15.615.016.720.117.6
External Debt (% of GDP)12.415.115.314.516.6

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Egypt Facts

Bond Yield15.600.0 %Oct 13
Exchange Rate17.630.0 %Oct 13
Stock Market1,3110.39 %Oct 13

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Egypt Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

The economy should gather speed going forward. Recent laws designed to enhance the business environment are likely to boost investment, while consumer spending should recover as inflation declines and the depreciated pound boosts exports. Met the why particular analysts expect GDP to expand 4.1% in FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.6% in FY 2019.

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