Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

The economy performed well in the fourth quarter of FY 2018, with GDP growth remaining at the multi-year high recorded for Q3, primarily due to higher investment and exports. The current account deficit also fell to a near five-year low, while the unemployment rate declined to a seven-and-a-half year low. More recent signs have been mixed. After operating conditions in the non-oil private sector improved in July and August due to increased new business inflows, conditions deteriorated in September, although businesses grew more optimistic about prospects. Meanwhile, the recent investor retreat from emerging-market assets has not left Egypt completely unscathed: in October, the 11-year government bond yield hit highs last seen in July 2017.

Egypt Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to remain robust this fiscal year and next. Increased government investment spending, rising natural gas production, an improved regulatory environment and construction activity related to the building of the new capital city should boost activity. However, large fiscal imbalances and the higher price of oil will weigh on prospects. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 5.2% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% again in FY 2020.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,1173,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.94.44.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.34.43.14.64.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.41.78.611.211.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.11.7
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.1-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1113-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.711.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.511.111.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.7518.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7111.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-15.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-36.6
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.721.7
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.458.3
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.915.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.41.5
International Reserves (USD)17.115.416.524.337.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.015.114.416.733.7

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield17.850.0 %Nov 15
Exchange Rate17.910.0 %Nov 15
Stock Market1,3170.53 %Nov 15

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