Egypt Economic Forecast

Egypt Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

The economy had a shaky start to the third quarter of fiscal year 2019, which ran from January to March. After falling in January, the private-sector PMI fell again in February to plunge to the lowest level since September 2017, leaving it in contractionary territory for the sixth month running. February’s downturn was due to markedly lower output and a substantial drop in new business orders. This comes after economic growth accelerated in Q2 FY 2019. On the fiscal front, the government approved the FY 2020 budget on 27 March. The finance package is in line with the government’s IMF-backed reform program, targeting a lower fiscal deficit on the back of a restrained rise in spending and strong economic growth boosting revenues. Meanwhile, MPs are expected to vote in favor of constitutional changes on 14 April which would extend the president’s term, subject to a confirmatory public referendum.

Egypt Economic Growth

Economic growth should be strong this fiscal year thanks to higher government investment spending, rising natural gas production and an improving regulatory environment. However, despite moderating in recent years, fiscal imbalances continue to restrain economic potential. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 5.3% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in FY 2020.

Egypt Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)84.786.789.090.294.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,1173,5253,7383,6912,472
GDP (USD bn)289306333333234
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.22.94.44.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.34.43.14.64.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.41.78.611.211.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.6-4.82.3-0.11.7
Unemployment Rate13.213.012.812.511.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-12.8-11.5-11.0-12.1-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)88.289.493.1113-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.417.016.418.639.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.711.111.123.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.511.111.413.829.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.259.259.2514.7518.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.957.157.8318.1317.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.877.087.7111.0917.84
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.2-0.9-3.6-6.0-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-2.7-12.1-19.8-15.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-30.7-34.1-39.1-38.7-36.6
Exports (USD billion)27.026.122.218.721.7
Imports (USD billion)57.760.261.357.458.3
Exports (annual variation in %)7.6-3.4-14.7-15.915.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.64.31.9-6.41.5
International Reserves (USD)17.115.416.524.337.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.015.114.416.733.7

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Egypt Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield16.350.0 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate17.310.0 %Apr 12
Stock Market1,4510.53 %Apr 12

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