Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

The economy likely lost further momentum in the first quarter as suggested by overall economic activity, which decelerated throughout Q1 and grew at a slower pace compared to Q4 2018. Domestic demand seems to have come under pressure from ongoing fiscal adjustment aimed at bringing down the hefty debt burden and easing liquidity constraints. Fixed investment likely faltered on lower private sector credit growth, while more downbeat consumer confidence signals a slowdown in household spending in the quarter. Compounding matters, export growth fell again in Q1, owing to a notably softer upturn in the overseas sales of oil. On 11 June, the Ministry of Finance announced that it will launch an offer to buy back its 2020 bond that will be financed with the issuance of a new bond maturing in 2029. The liability management operation will seek to reduce the cost of servicing debt and boost the country’s debt profile.

Ecuador Economic Growth

Although the program to strengthen fiscal discipline should alleviate financing constraints, growth is expected to decelerate sharply this year as the measures will undermine domestic demand. Government spending is set to contract in the year, while private consumption and fixed investment are expected to lose steam on tighter credit conditions. Met the why particular panelists project an expansion of 0.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 0.7% in 2020.

Ecuador Economy Data

Population (million)15.816.016.316.516.8
GDP per capita (USD)6,0306,3476,0995,9666,143
GDP (USD bn)95.111299.398.6113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)11.42.3-6.2-8.1-0.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.23.7-0.4-2.52.1
Unemployment Rate4.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.9-9.6-6.2-7.4-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.029.633.038.745.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.535.
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.0-0.5-2.11.5-0.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.5-2.11.4-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.9-2.0-3.20.5-0.9
Exports (USD billion)24.825.718.316.819.1
Imports (USD billion)25.827.721.516.320.0
Exports (annual variation in %)4.63.5-28.7-8.413.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.57.6-22.4-24.122.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)19.623.627.634.138.2

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Ecuador Facts

Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Jun 13
Stock Market1,3660.17 %Jun 13

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