Ecuador Economic Outlook
June 11, 2019The economy likely lost further momentum in the first quarter as suggested by overall economic activity, which decelerated throughout Q1 and grew at a slower pace compared to Q4 2018. Domestic demand seems to have come under pressure from ongoing fiscal adjustment aimed at bringing down the hefty debt burden and easing liquidity constraints. Fixed investment likely faltered on lower private sector credit growth, while more downbeat consumer confidence signals a slowdown in household spending in the quarter. Compounding matters, export growth fell again in Q1, owing to a notably softer upturn in the overseas sales of oil. On 11 June, the Ministry of Finance announced that it will launch an offer to buy back its 2020 bond that will be financed with the issuance of a new bond maturing in 2029. The liability management operation will seek to reduce the cost of servicing debt and boost the country’s debt profile.
Ecuador Economic GrowthAlthough the program to strengthen fiscal discipline should alleviate financing constraints, growth is expected to decelerate sharply this year as the measures will undermine domestic demand. Government spending is set to contract in the year, while private consumption and fixed investment are expected to lose steam on tighter credit conditions. Met the why particular panelists project an expansion of 0.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 0.7% in 2020.
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|Exchange Rate||25,000||0.0 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||1,366||0.17 %||Jun 13|
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Ecuador Economic News
June 12, 2019
Economic activity rose 2.7% over the same month of the previous year in April, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
June 6, 2019
Consumer prices came in flat in May after rising 0.17% month-on-month in April. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages led the downturn, followed by healthcare.
May 15, 2019
Economic activity grew 2.0% over the same month of the previous year in March, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
May 13, 2019
Consumer prices returned to growth at the outset of the second quarter, rising 0.17% over the previous month in April.
April 16, 2019
Economic activity grew 4.8% over the same month of the previous year in February, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.