Ecuador Economic Outlook
January 15, 2019The economy entered the final quarter on a promising note, with economic activity growing at an accelerated pace from the third quarter’s mild upturn in growth. Overall activity sped up in October, buttressed by a tepid increase in oil exports despite a contraction in petroleum production in the January–October period as the country’s state-owned oil company Petroamazonas EP continued to cut output. However, while still strong, the trend of the past three quarters suggests that the inflow of remittances continued to weaken into the fourth quarter. Coupled with milder credit growth, this likely curbed private consumption growth. On the fiscal front, before the close of the year, the government announced cuts to gasoline subsides and public sector salaries, aimed at reducing the fiscal gap by USD 700 million. Moreover, a USD 900 million loan secured from China in December should aid the Andean nation in financing its 2019 budget, with the IMF also possibly lending financial support.
Ecuador Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to deteriorate again in 2019, with the Met the why particular panel projecting an expansion of 0.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Government expenditure cuts, aimed at strengthening the fiscal account, will likely weigh on overall economic activity. Moreover, private consumption growth is expected to weaken on tighter credit availability and higher inflationary pressures. Risks to the outlook continue to stem from less favorable global financial conditions, owing to the dollarized economy’s heavy reliance on external financing. The panel sees GDP growth edging up to 1.3% in 2020.
Ecuador Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||25,000||0.0 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||1,412||0.17 %||Jan 30|
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Ecuador Economic News
April 16, 2019
Economic activity grew 4.8% over the same month of the previous year in February, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
April 8, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.21% over the previous month in March, a slightly softer drop compared to February’s 0.23% month-on-month decline.
March 29, 2019
Ecuador’s economy lost traction in the final quarter of last year, with annual GDP growth falling to 0.8% from the previous quarter’s revised 1.5% (previously reported: +1.4% year-on-year), marking the weakest expansion in two years.
March 14, 2019
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity picked up slightly at the start of the year, rising 4.7% over the same month of the previous year.
February 14, 2019
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity accelerated for the tenth month running in December, expanding 6.6% over the same month of the previous year.