Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

The economy expanded at a slower annual pace in the first quarter of this year than it did in the fourth quarter of last year, although growth was still among the fastest in the CENAM region. The construction sector continued to drive growth in Q1, as did the services, and mining and quarrying sectors. Likely underpinning all of this was a double-digit increase in private sector lending, strong employment growth, a surge in foreign direct investment and healthy tourist arrivals in Q1. Turning to Q2, private sector lending continued to grow rapidly through to May despite softening somewhat, hinting the economy will expand at another robust pace in the quarter; however, an expected slowdown in the U.S. could hurt remittances.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

Growth should ease this year on a high base effect and an ebbing U.S. economy. Nevertheless, the expansion should still be notably above the regional average, underpinned by strong private-sector credit growth, a booming tourism sector and a healthy labor market. A fragile fiscal position and a faster-than-expected slowdown in the United States are the main downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 5.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 4.7%.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.89.911.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)6,4116,6936,9037,1887,475
GDP (USD bn)62.766.268.972.476.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.97.67.06.64.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.63.85.34.84.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.512.320.611.40.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.814.88.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.3-2.70.0-2.8-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.036.035.136.938.9
Money (annual variation in %)11.711.511.611.011.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.91.62.31.74.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.00.81.63.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.256.255.005.505.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)42.6944.2845.5346.3447.80
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)41.7143.4844.9845.9347.31
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.1-3.3-1.9-1.1-0.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-2.2-1.3-0.8-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.4-7.4-7.5-7.6-7.6
Exports (USD billion)9.49.99.49.811.1
Imports (USD billion)16.817.316.917.417.7
Exports (annual variation in %)5.55.0-4.64.22.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.82.8-2.12.91.7
International Reserves (USD)4.74.95.36.06.8
External Debt (% of GDP)38.239.738.738.7-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate50.660.80 %Jun 13

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