Czech Republic Economic Forecast

Czech Rep. Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The economy had a strong showing in 2017: Growth picked up pace in three consecutive quarters, and indicators suggest the momentum carried over into the final quarter. Industrial production and retail trade turned in positive results again in November, albeit moderating from the prior month. Furthermore, the manufacturing PMI continued climbing throughout the quarter, clocking a multi-year high in January. However, while consumer confidence improved in January, business confidence slipped. Politically, the sailing is less smooth. President Milos Zeman, an ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin, won a second term on 27 January; he is one of the few allies of Andrej Babiš, who has been prime minister since December. Babiš, who lost a no-confidence vote on 11 January, has been unable to garner majority backing to form a government. However, the Communist Party agreed to restart talks over possible support of a Babiš-government. The combination of Zeman and Babiš could, however, strain relations with the EU further as both men oppose further EU integration.

Czech Republic Economic Growth

Ongoing political uncertainty is likely to drag on the economy in the short term. Moreover, Babis’ inability to form a government has derailed his plans to implement pro-growth economic policy in a timely manner. Despite the continued uncertainty, economic growth should remain solid this year. Household spending is expected to remain robust and drive growth, while fixed investment is also expected to remain strong. Panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 2.8% in 2019.

Czech Republic Economy Data

Population (million)11.511.511.511.511.6
GDP per capita (EUR)15,25714,93214,85416,00816,726
GDP (EUR bn)160157156169177
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.7-
Consumption (annual variation in %)-
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.9-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.8-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-
Unemployment Rate6.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-1.2-1.9-0.60.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.544.942.211.337.2
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.21.7-3.7-2.9-0.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Stock Market (annual variation in %)14.0-4.8-4.31.0-3.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)25.1427.4327.7327.0327.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)25.1425.9927.5327.2827.03
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.6-
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.5-
Trade Balance (EUR billion)
Exports (EUR billion)114113111118118
Imports (EUR billion)99.596.7112111119
Exports (annual variation in %)5.4-
Imports (annual variation in %)3.7-
International Reserves (EUR)34.211.845.059.481.3
External Debt (% of GDP)60.563.570.170.273.9

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Czech Republic Facts

Bond Yield1.87-1.85 %Feb 20
Exchange Rate20.52-0.66 %Feb 20
Stock Market1,116-0.11 %Feb 20

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