Croatia Economic Forecast

Croatia Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The expansion of both industrial production and retail sales throughout Q3 suggests growth remained robust in the quarter. A record-breaking tourist season also made a decisive contribution to the economy in the quarter, and helped keep the unemployment rate at multi-year lows throughout Q3. The strong economic situation was reflected in the government’s fiscal data: In mid-November the Croatian parliament narrowed the expected government budget deficit for 2017 from 1.3% to 0.6% of GDP. This was due to slower-than-budgeted spending and revenues that outperformed plans on account of successfully implemented tax reforms. Early data for Q4 points to an extension of economic momentum into the last quarter of the year: Consumer and business confidence improved in October despite unemployment rising in the same month because of the end of the summer season.

Croatia Economic Growth

In 2018, the economy is expected to post another year of healthy growth. Household spending will likely benefit from rising wages, employment growth and favorable financing conditions, while stronger EU funds inflows and upbeat business sentiment should lift fixed investment growth. Moreover, a strong tourism sector is expected to remain a key driver of growth, and the fiscal deficit should stay under control. On the downside, the main risks stem from the uncertainty surrounding the restructuring of food giant Agrokor. Met the why particular panelists project GDP growth of 2.7% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2019.

Croatia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)4.34.34.24.24.2
GDP per capita (EUR)11,30911,33811,14611,46611,031
GDP (EUR bn)44.044.043.044.046.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.2-1.1-0.52.22.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-3.0-1.9-1.71.03.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.31.4-2.83.85.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-5.4-1.61.22.45.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-4.2-0.50.42.44.0
Unemployment Rate20.921.619.617.214.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-5.3-5.4-3.4-0.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)70.782.286.686.784.2
Money (annual variation in %)0.911.59.611.418.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.70.3-0.5-0.60.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.42.30.2-0.3-0.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.4-0.2-2.5-3.7-4.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.007.007.003.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)0.03.1-3.1-2.818.1
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)7.557.627.667.647.55
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)7.517.587.637.617.53
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.31.01.94.62.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.00.40.92.11.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-6.6-6.9-6.8-7.0-7.4
Exports (EUR billion)9.69.611.411.512.3
Imports (EUR billion)16.216.517.118.519.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.5-0.48.111.26.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.41.93.67.96.6
International Reserves (EUR)11.212.912.713.713.5
External Debt (% of GDP)13614313111395.5

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Croatia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.390.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate6.11-0.54 %Dec 06
Stock Market1,853-0.48 %Dec 06

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Croatia Economic News

  • Croatia: Stronger fixed investment and solid household spending underpin growth in Q3

    December 1, 2017

    The economy gained traction in the third quarter of 2017, supported by a surge in fixed investment and solid household spending, despite the uncertainty still surrounding the restructuring of Croatia’s largest private company, food giant Agrokor.

    Read more

  • Croatia: Industrial production growth slows in October

    November 29, 2017

    Industrial output in October increased 4.3% in working-day adjusted terms from the same month last year, following September’s softer 3.0% expansion. October’s result was pushed-up by a remarkable expansion in manufacturing sector: Manufacture of wood and wood products, as well as of refined petroleum products and of food products recorded particularly high growth rates.

    Read more

  • Croatia: Inflation stable in October

    November 16, 2017

    In October, consumer prices increased 0.4% from the previous month, following September’s over five-year high of 1.5% increase.

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  • Croatia: Industrial production growth slows in September

    October 30, 2017

    Industrial output in September increased 3.0% in working-day adjusted terms from the same month last year, following August’s slightly stronger 3.2% expansion. September’s result was pushed-up by a faster expansion in the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply sub-sector, and by a turnaround in the mining and quarrying sub-sector, while growth in the manufacturing sector slowed considerably from August, weighing on the final result. On a month-on-month basis, industrial production in September expanded 1.4% in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, following August’s much softer 0.3% uptick.

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  • Croatia: Inflation continues to climb in September

    October 23, 2017

    In September, consumer prices increased 1.5% from the previous month, following August’s flat result and marking the highest reading since May 2012.

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