Croatia Economic Forecast

Croatia Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Recently released GDP data revealed that the economy gained steam in Q1, with growth accelerating to an over two-year high on the back of strong domestic demand. Despite higher unemployment, private consumption rose at the fastest clip since early 2008 as household incomes were buoyed by solid credit growth and healthy real wage gains in the quarter. Likewise, fixed investment growth surged to an over-decade high, aided by EU-linked structural funding and upbeat corporate lending. On the external front, although exports picked up noticeably, they were outpaced by imports and thus net trade weighed on the overall expansion. Going forward, available data signals that momentum was sustained at the outset of Q2. The unemployment rate dipped to a seven-month low in April while consumer confidence hit consecutive record highs in April and May, indicating that private consumption has remained resilient.

Croatia Economic Growth

Growth is seen remaining healthy this year amid upbeat domestic demand. A gradually improving labor market, sustained remittance inflows and rising real wages should prop up household spending. Furthermore, continued absorption of EU structural funds should aid investment activity ahead. A slowdown in external demand, primarily from the EU, clouds the outlook. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 2.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% again in 2020.

Croatia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)4.34.24.24.24.1
GDP per capita (EUR)11,33811,38211,70411,27111,811
GDP (EUR bn)44.044.045.047.049.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.12.43.52.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.9-1.61.03.43.6
Investment (annual variation in %)1.4-2.83.86.53.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.71.22.55.01.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.30.42.44.04.7
Unemployment Rate21.519.417.614.712.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-5.1-3.4-0.90.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)80.584.083.880.678.0
Money (annual variation in %)11.59.611.418.219.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.3-0.5-0.60.2-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.30.2-0.3-0.61.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.007.003.003.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)3.1-3.1-2.818.1-7.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)7.627.667.647.557.43
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)7.587.637.617.537.46
Current Account (% of GDP)0.91.84.42.64.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.40.92.01.21.9
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-6.6-6.5-7.0-7.3-8.2
Exports (EUR billion)8.99.411.211.511.7
Imports (EUR billion)15.516.017.217.919.8
Exports (annual variation in %)2.95.88.03.111.1
Imports (annual variation in %)3.62.87.64.011.1
International Reserves (EUR)12.912.713.713.515.7
External Debt (% of GDP)11511611188.682.6

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Croatia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.330.0 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate6.57-0.54 %Jun 13
Stock Market1,901-0.48 %Jun 13

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