Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

November 6, 2018

Early indicators suggest that the recovery lost some speed in the third quarter. Export growth plunged in September on a sharp contraction in exports of farming, food and beverages, outweighing the gains from a strong upturn in overseas sales of oil. This caused a weaker average pace of expansion in Q3 compared to the previous quarter. Furthermore, retail sales lost pace in the quarter, signalling a downturn in household consumption. Meanwhile, on 31 October, the government submitted a new tax bill to Congress to finance next year’s budget. The bill aims to raise COP 14 trillion (USD 4.37 billion) through higher taxes on middle- and high-income households, along with extending the value-added tax on more products. Yet, with the ruling party lacking a majority in Congress and lawmakers fiercely divided on the issue, it will be a no easy feat to secure approval for the bill.

Colombia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to gain steam next year, thanks to higher investment in the extractive sector, coupled with a rise in oil prices. Favorable labor market dynamics should bode well for household incomes, thus boosting private spending. That said, the government’s drive to achieving greater fiscal consolidation will likely dent economic activity, while the tax reform’s proposal to cut corporate taxes is expected to pose challenges in meeting the fiscal targets. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% again in 2020.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1167,9926,0755,8086,377
GDP (USD bn)382381293283314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.01.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.42.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-2.70.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.2
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.441.142.443.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.5-12.0-11.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.2-15.6-11.1-6.2
Exports (USD billion)58.854.936.031.837.8
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.844.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.7-34.3-11.818.9
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.02.6
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.637.742.439.6

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.090.0 %Nov 15
Exchange Rate3,190-0.17 %Nov 15
Stock Market12,327-0.66 %Nov 15

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Colombia Economic News

  • Colombia: Industrial production growth weakens in September

    November 14, 2018

    According to data released by Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) on 14 November, the industrial sector grew at a weaker pace of 2.9% over the same month of the previous year in September, after expanding a revised 4.2% year-on-year in August (previously reported: +3.9% year-on-year). Looking at a breakdown of the data showed that September’s weaker pace of expansion was due to a marked drop in the output of coking, oil refining and fuel blending, along with more modest downturns in the manufacture of basic chemical substances and their products, and manufacture of metal products. Annual average growth in industrial production climbed to 2.0% in September, up from 1.5% in August. Colombia Industrial Production Forecast

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  • Colombia: Inflation inches up in October, remaining with the Central Bank’s target band

    November 3, 2018

    According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), consumer prices rose 0.12% over the previous month in October, after a 0.16% month-on-month increase in September.

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  • Colombia: Export growth tumbles to six-month low in September

    November 1, 2018

    According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), the annual pace of expansion in exports declined markedly to a six-month low of 3.8% in September from 13.1% in August.

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  • Colombia: PMI continues to lose ground in October

    November 1, 2018

    Colombia’s manufacturing sector continued to weaken in October, with the seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 52.0 from 52.8 in September.

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  • Colombia: Central Bank keeps benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.25%

    October 26, 2018

    At its 26 October Board of Directors meeting, Colombia’s Central Bank (Banco de la República, BanRep) took the unanimous decision to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.25%, where it has been since 27 April when the Bank cut the rate by 25 basis points.

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