Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

February 12, 2019

The economy appears to have picked up last year, thanks to a turnaround in the oil sector. On the demand side, private consumption accelerated on reduced inflationary pressures in the first three quarters, but a marked deterioration in consumer confidence in Q4 signals household spending cooled in the quarter. This is likely due to the recently-approved tax reform bill, which will raise personal income taxes for high-income earners. That said, a weak construction sector and the government’s fiscal consolidation drive restrained growth in overall economic activity. In other news, amid dwindling popularity for President Iván Duque, the government announced that planned reform to the pension system, with the overall aim of reducing social security spending, would not be implemented this year. Instead, more time will be spent assessing its likely impacts.

Colombia Economic Growth

Momentum should strengthen in 2019, primarily thanks to a marked upturn in fixed investment. In a bid to boost foreign investment in crude and gas production, the country is set to award oil contracts for the first time in four years. The tighter labor market should also propel private consumption. Measures underway to improve the fiscal account, however, will likely restrain the pace of expansion. Risks to the outlook stem from lower oil prices and less favorable global financial conditions. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,1167,9926,0755,8086,377
GDP (USD bn)382381293283314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.64.73.02.01.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.16.22.41.21.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.63.41.42.2
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-2.70.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.46.42.0-0.2
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.29.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.441.142.443.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.74.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.54.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.23.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.213.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,0022,985
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,0522,952
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.2-6.3-4.2-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.5-19.8-18.5-12.0-11.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.2-15.6-11.1-6.2
Exports (USD billion)58.854.936.031.837.8
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.844.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.7-34.3-11.818.9
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.02.6
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.747.6
External Debt (% of GDP)24.126.637.742.439.6

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.670.0 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate3,151-0.17 %Feb 14
Stock Market12,002-0.66 %Feb 14

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