Colombia Economic Outlook
November 6, 2018Early indicators suggest that the recovery lost some speed in the third quarter. Export growth plunged in September on a sharp contraction in exports of farming, food and beverages, outweighing the gains from a strong upturn in overseas sales of oil. This caused a weaker average pace of expansion in Q3 compared to the previous quarter. Furthermore, retail sales lost pace in the quarter, signalling a downturn in household consumption. Meanwhile, on 31 October, the government submitted a new tax bill to Congress to finance next year’s budget. The bill aims to raise COP 14 trillion (USD 4.37 billion) through higher taxes on middle- and high-income households, along with extending the value-added tax on more products. Yet, with the ruling party lacking a majority in Congress and lawmakers fiercely divided on the issue, it will be a no easy feat to secure approval for the bill.
Colombia Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to gain steam next year, thanks to higher investment in the extractive sector, coupled with a rise in oil prices. Favorable labor market dynamics should bode well for household incomes, thus boosting private spending. That said, the government’s drive to achieving greater fiscal consolidation will likely dent economic activity, while the tax reform’s proposal to cut corporate taxes is expected to pose challenges in meeting the fiscal targets. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% again in 2020.
Colombia Economy Data
5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.09||0.0 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||3,190||-0.17 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||12,327||-0.66 %||Nov 15|
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Colombia Economic News
November 14, 2018
According to data released by Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) on 14 November, the industrial sector grew at a weaker pace of 2.9% over the same month of the previous year in September, after expanding a revised 4.2% year-on-year in August (previously reported: +3.9% year-on-year). Looking at a breakdown of the data showed that September’s weaker pace of expansion was due to a marked drop in the output of coking, oil refining and fuel blending, along with more modest downturns in the manufacture of basic chemical substances and their products, and manufacture of metal products. Annual average growth in industrial production climbed to 2.0% in September, up from 1.5% in August. Colombia Industrial Production Forecast
November 3, 2018
According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), consumer prices rose 0.12% over the previous month in October, after a 0.16% month-on-month increase in September.
November 1, 2018
According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), the annual pace of expansion in exports declined markedly to a six-month low of 3.8% in September from 13.1% in August.
November 1, 2018
Colombia’s manufacturing sector continued to weaken in October, with the seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 52.0 from 52.8 in September.
October 26, 2018
At its 26 October Board of Directors meeting, Colombia’s Central Bank (Banco de la República, BanRep) took the unanimous decision to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.25%, where it has been since 27 April when the Bank cut the rate by 25 basis points.