Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

Data for the first quarter indicates that growth gained traction on the back of a rise in oil prices, signaling that the economic recovery is underway. Retail sales rebounded in January and accelerated throughout the quarter amid declining inflation and improved consumer confidence. While still in negative territory, consumer sentiment was less pessimistic on average in the quarter compared to the previous one, which likely helped buoy private consumption. Exports continued expanding at a strong pace, although they lost some ground from the final quarter. Colombia will hold the first round of its presidential election on 27 May. Centre-right candidate Iván Duque, from ex-President Álvaro Uribe’s Democratic Center (Centro Democrático), continues to lead in the latest polls and is the favorite to win.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to accelerate this year as oil prices climb higher. An expansion in oil exploration activities should help boost growth in the medium term. Dependence on oil exports will, however, leave the economy exposed to the same type of external shock that generated a slowdown in 2015–2016. Investment in the non-oil sector will thus be critical to achieving sustainable growth. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.

Colombia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)47.147.748.248.749.3
GDP per capita (USD)8,0607,9296,0305,801-  
GDP (USD bn)380378291283-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.94.43.12.0-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.06.22.90.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.64.43.62.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.89.81.9-3.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.81.31.83.5-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.78.16.22.0-  
Unemployment Rate9.69.18.99.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.937.741.442.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)14.79.112.56.9-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.93.76.85.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.02.95.07.5-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.16.05.52.2-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.505.757.50-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.2-11.0-26.518.2-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9302,3893,1753,002-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8692,0032,7493,052-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.3-5.1-6.4-4.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-12.3-19.4-18.6-12.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.2-6.3-15.6-11.5-  
Exports (USD billion)58.854.836.031.4-  
Imports (USD billion)56.661.151.642.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.2-6.8-34.4-12.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)0.97.9-15.5-17.0-  
International Reserves (USD)43.647.346.746.7-  
External Debt (% of GDP)24.226.838.042.5-  

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.640.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate2,876-0.17 %May 21
Stock Market12,084-0.66 %May 21

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