Colombia Economic Outlook
August 7, 2018While growth is staging a recovery in the Colombian economy, available data indicates a moderate rate of expansion thus far. Compared to the first quarter, however, second-quarter data has been more promising: Growth in the industrial sector shot up, and retail sales accelerated in April–May amid a fall in the average rate of unemployment. Exports jumped in June, reflecting a surge in overseas sales of oil, cashing in on higher oil prices. Moreover, upturns in the manufacturing PMI in June and July, and a climb in consumer confidence to an over-three-year high in June signal more upbeat prospects. On the political front, President-Elect Iván Duque will take office on 7 August. Duque has already appointed Alberto Carrasquilla as minister of finance, who is expected to be a key figure in pushing through the tax cut bill that was at the core of his election campaign.
Colombia Economic GrowthEconomic growth this year should be underpinned by higher oil prices supporting an upturn in the oil sector. Planned infrastructure projects and improved investor confidence on reduced political uncertainty should also help boost growth. Duque’s promise to cut corporate taxes could pose challenges in meeting the fiscal target, however, unless they are offset with a new source of revenues. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 2.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2019.
Colombia Economy Data
5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.86||0.0 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||3,050||-0.17 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||11,947||-0.66 %||Aug 15|
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Colombia Economic News
August 4, 2018
According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), consumer prices fell 0.13% over the previous month in July, contrasting a 0.15% month-on-month rise in June.
August 2, 2018
According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), the annual pace of expansion in exports climbed to 15.9% in June, markedly up from 5.0% in May.
August 1, 2018
Colombia’s manufacturing sector gained speed at the outset of the third quarter, reflected by the seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which rose to 53.5 in July, up from 53.0 in June.
July 27, 2018
At its 27 July Board of Directors meeting, Colombia’s Central Bank (Banco de la República, BanRep) unanimously opted to hold the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, matching the decision of the last meeting that took place at the end of June.
July 17, 2018
The Fedesarrollo consumer confidence index jumped to 15.5 points in June from 8.9 points in May, moving further above the zero-point threshold separating optimism from pessimism among consumers.