Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

February 13, 2018

The latest data for the final quarter of 2017 was mixed. In November, industrial production and retail sales rebounded. Lower unemployment in November, along with improved consumer confidence in the month, encouraged higher private consumption and supported a turnaround in the retail sector. Consumer sentiment brightened further in December but remained in pessimistic territory. On the other hand, car sales contracted sharply in November, and the external sector continued weighing on growth in December, albeit by less than in the previous month thanks to a notable climb in exports. As imports contracted in December, the trade deficit narrowed. Tensions are mounting on the political front as FARC, the former guerrilla movement-turned-political party, is fielding 75 candidates in the 11 March legislative election and its leader in the presidential election this May. Protests over the party contending, due to the tactics employed by the former rebels in the 53-year conflict, led it to temporarily suspend campaigning on 9 February. Economic activity could potentially be hindered if tensions are amplified.

Colombia Economic Growth

A pick-up in private consumption aided by an anticipated moderation in inflation, higher fixed investment and healthy growth in exports are expected to buoy the economy this year, propelling growth above last year’s rate. Ongoing structural reforms should help economic diversification efforts and boost competitiveness. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 2.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.

Colombia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.647.147.748.248.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,9328,0607,9296,0305,801
GDP (USD bn)369380378291283
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.04.94.43.12.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.75.06.22.90.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.64.43.62.0
Investment (annual variation in %)4.76.89.81.9-3.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-1.81.31.83.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.14.78.16.22.0
Unemployment Rate11.49.69.18.99.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.734.937.741.442.4
Money (annual variation in %)16.514.79.112.56.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.93.76.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.02.95.07.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.9-0.16.05.52.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.253.254.505.757.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)16.2-11.2-11.0-26.518.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7671,9302,3893,1753,002
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,7971,8692,0032,7493,052
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.3-5.1-6.4-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-12.3-19.4-18.6-12.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)4.02.2-6.3-15.6-11.5
Exports (USD billion)60.158.854.836.031.4
Imports (USD billion)56.156.661.151.642.8
Exports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.2-6.8-34.4-12.7
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.97.9-15.5-17.0
International Reserves (USD)37.543.647.346.746.7
External Debt (% of GDP)21.324.226.838.042.5

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.590.0 %Feb 20
Exchange Rate2,863-0.17 %Feb 20
Stock Market11,718-0.66 %Feb 20

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