Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

Growth picked up in Q3, to 2.0% year-on-year from a disappointing 1.2% in Q2. A sustained rise in government spending, along with a recovery in the external sector, powered the upswing. Exports rebounded on greater overseas sales of oil and agricultural commodities. Improved weather conditions yielded an upturn in agricultural output, while the oil sector cashed in on the rally in oil prices. Q3’s performance undershot market analysts’ expectations, however. The economy remains in a weak spot following the collapse of oil prices in 2014–2016, which hurled growth to the lowest levels in eight years. Recent data indicates that momentum will likely be subdued in Q4: Annual growth in exports moderated in October from September, and consumer confidence deteriorated further, signaling that private consumption will remain weak. Following the Q3 release, the government cut its full-year growth forecast for the year from 2.0% to 1.8%.

Colombia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to accelerate next year on the back of higher private consumption, an upturn in investment, and a surge in oil and commodity exports. On 22 November, Colombia’s state-run oil company, Ecopetrol, announced production and exploration investment plans worth USD 3.5–4.0 billion for 2018, and a target to yield 715,000–725,000 barrels per day next year. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 2.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2019.

Colombia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.647.147.748.248.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,9328,0607,9296,0305,801
GDP (USD bn)369380378291283
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.04.94.43.12.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.75.06.22.90.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.64.43.62.0
Investment (annual variation in %)4.76.89.81.9-3.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-1.81.31.83.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.14.78.16.22.0
Unemployment Rate11.49.69.18.99.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.734.937.741.442.4
Money (annual variation in %)16.514.79.112.56.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.93.76.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.02.95.07.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.9-0.16.05.52.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.253.254.505.757.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)16.2-11.2-11.0-26.518.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7671,9302,3893,1753,002
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,7971,8692,0032,7493,052
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.3-5.1-6.4-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-12.3-19.4-18.6-12.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)4.02.2-6.3-15.6-11.5
Exports (USD billion)60.158.854.836.031.4
Imports (USD billion)56.156.661.151.642.8
Exports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.2-6.8-34.4-12.7
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.97.9-15.5-17.0
International Reserves (USD)37.543.647.346.746.7
External Debt (% of GDP)21.324.226.838.042.5

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.460.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate3,009-0.17 %Dec 06
Stock Market11,843-0.66 %Dec 06

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