Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

October 11, 2017

The economy is finally experiencing relief thanks to higher commodities prices and a slow but steady recovery in the external sector, which is benefitting from a weaker peso and improved export competitiveness. Moreover, data for Q3 points to an acceleration in economic growth. Domestic demand should be firmer in Q3 as lower inflation and interest rates boost consumer spending, as evidenced by the pick-up in retail sales in July. Furthermore, the government is gearing up for the parliamentary elections in March 2018 and the first round of the presidential election in May 2018, meaning pre-election spending is on the rise. In addition, investment spending of USD 11.4 billion in 2017 for the 4G road infrastructure program is boosting economic growth. However, widespread corruption involving top government officials, including a former supreme court judge who was arrested on 20 September, continues to undermine stability and is evolving into one of the largest challenges the country is facing moving forward.

Colombia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.647.147.748.248.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,9328,0607,9296,0305,801
GDP (USD bn)369380378291283
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.04.94.43.12.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.75.06.22.90.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.64.43.62.0
Investment (annual variation in %)4.76.89.81.9-3.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-1.81.31.83.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.14.78.16.22.0
Unemployment Rate11.49.69.18.99.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.734.937.741.442.4
Money (annual variation in %)16.514.79.112.56.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.93.76.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.02.95.07.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.9-0.16.05.52.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.253.254.505.757.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)16.2-11.2-11.0-26.518.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7671,9302,3893,1753,002
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,7971,8692,0032,7493,052
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.3-5.1-6.4-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-12.3-19.4-18.6-12.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)4.02.2-6.3-15.6-11.5
Exports (USD billion)60.158.854.836.031.4
Imports (USD billion)56.156.661.151.642.8
Exports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.2-6.8-34.4-12.7
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.97.9-15.5-17.0
International Reserves (USD)37.543.647.346.746.7
External Debt (% of GDP)21.324.226.838.042.5

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.38-0.62 %Oct 13
Exchange Rate2,933-0.25 %Oct 13
Stock Market11,0840.21 %Oct 13

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Colombia Economic Growth

October 11, 2017

The transition of the FARC from a militant group into an official political party and the first-ever cease fire with ELN rebels are significant strides towards peace, which will eventually translate into new economic opportunities for regions previously affected and will also improve security conditions and attract foreign investment. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 1.8% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Colombia Economic News

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