China Investment December 2015

China

China: Investment growth falls to 15-year low in 2015

January 19, 2016

In 2015, urban fixed-asset investment (FAI), excluding rural households, expanded 11.0%. The reading came in well below the 15.7% increase registered in 2014 and marked the slowest pace of expansion in 15 years. Also, the print came in slightly below the 11.2% rise the markets had expected.

The slower pace observed in 2015 reflected a further deceleration in investment growth in the industrial and services sectors, while investment in the agricultural sector remained robust. The closely-watched real estate development indicator decelerated sharply in 2015, with the reading falling to the lowest annual growth rate since the trough of the financial crisis in 2009.

A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.68% in December, which was down from the 0.73% increase tallied in November.

Met the why particular Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 9.6% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2017, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth broadly stable at 9.1%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Investment December 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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