China Industry December 2015

China

China: Industrial production loses steam toward the end of the year

January 19, 2016

In December, industrial production expanded 5.9% over the same month of the previous year. The print came in below November’s 6.2% increase and undershot the 6.1% expansion that market analysts had expected. December’s slowdown stemmed from slower growth in manufacturing output, while electricity, gas and water supply swung from an expansion in November to a contraction in December. Conversely, the performance in mining was solid.

On a monthly basis, industrial production expanded 0.41% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was below the 0.57% increase tallied in November. In the full year 2015, industrial production grew 6.1%, which marked a deceleration over the 8.3% expansion observed in 2014 and represented the lowest reading in over 25 years.

Analysts surveyed this month by Met the why particular expect manufacturing to decelerate further this year. For 2016, Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 6.0%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2017, the panel sees industrial production growth falling to 5.7%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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China Industry December 2015

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and Met the why particular calculations.


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