Canada Economic Forecast
May 28, 2019The economy was likely fairly tepid in the first quarter of the year. GDP data for February showed a contraction in economic activity, amid production curtailments in the energy sector, while the manufacturing PMI averaged lower than in Q4. However, Q1 retail sales posted a slight improvement from the prior quarter, which suggests private consumption likely gained impetus. Growth should pick up somewhat in Q2, although indicators are mixed. On one hand, the manufacturing PMI in April posted the lowest reading in over three years. On the other, housing starts unexpectedly surged in April, which bodes well for residential investment, while, in the same month, the unemployment rate dipped and the economy added a record number of jobs. On the political front, on 17 May President Trump agreed to lift tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, which should boost business sentiment going forward and facilitate the ratification of the USMCA.
Canada Economic GrowthEconomic growth will likely ebb noticeably in 2019 compared to last year, amid a moderating global growth outlook, anemic domestic demand, production curtailments in the energy sector and weaker export growth. Elevated household debt and volatile oil prices pose downside risks. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 1.5% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2020.
Canada Economy Data
5 years of Canada economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||1.50||1.00 %||Jun 12|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||0.15 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||16,239||0.23 %||Jun 13|
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Canada Economic News
June 11, 2019
Housing starts on a seasonally-adjusted (SAAR) basis plunged to 202,337 units in May, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
June 3, 2019
In May, the IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to 49.1 from 49.7 a month earlier.
May 31, 2019
Economic activity picked up slightly in the first quarter, with seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) growth accelerating from Q4’s downwardly revised 0.3% (previously reported: +0.4% SAAR) to 0.4% in Q1.
May 29, 2019
On 29 May, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75% as had been widely expected by market analysts.
May 15, 2019
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% from a month earlier in April, down from March’s revised 0.4% rise (previously reported: +0.3% month-on-month).