Canada Economic Forecast
September 27, 2017GDP growth blew past expectations in Q2 on impressive household spending and a surge in exports, handing Canada the top spot among G7 countries in terms of overall growth in H1. Moreover, household spending grew alongside the household savings rate in Q2, further signaling that heavily leveraged consumers were benefiting from higher wages and steady employment growth rather than leaning on debt. Business investment, plagued in recent years by subdued capital spending in the energy sector, also edged up for a second quarter. On the external side, increased production in the energy sector helped deliver the strongest expansion of exports in three years in Q2, and at long last promised the economy’s complete adjustment to lower oil prices. As expected, however, recent indicators for H2 suggest the economy has been slowing. In August, the Ivey PMI fell for a second consecutive month; the rapid rise in national housing prices also eased once again.
Canada Economy Data
5 years of Canada economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.08||-0.95 %||Oct 12|
|Exchange Rate||1.25||-0.05 %||Oct 13|
|Stock Market||15,807||0.41 %||Oct 13|
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Canada Economic Growth
September 27, 2017Growth is expected to cool through H2 and into next year as household spending eases, but falling unemployment should soften the blow. Brisk global demand is expected to boost energy exports and prop up the external sector, although a strengthening loonie and NAFTA renegotiations could mitigate some of those gains. Moreover, an overheated property market in the face of higher interest rates presents a downside risk to the outlook. Our analysts expect GDP to grow 2.8% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast.
Canada Economic News
September 22, 2017
Seasonally-adjusted consumer prices rose 0.2% in August, in line with July’s 0.2% print.
September 13, 2017
In August, the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index recorded a 0.6% increase from a month earlier, easing from July’s remarkable 2.0% monthly rise. In a notable shift, August’s modest increase in national housing prices came despite falling prices in the Toronto market—which accounts for more than a third of the 11-city composite index.
September 11, 2017
Seasonally-adjusted annualized housing starts registered a notable 223,200 units in August, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
September 7, 2017
The Canadian manufacturing sector contracted further in August following a drop in July, according to the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), prepared by the Richard Ivey School of Business.
September 6, 2017
On 6 September, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points from 0.75% to 1.00%, following its first 25-basis-points hike on 12 July.