Canada Economic Forecast

Canada Economic Forecast

January 30, 2018

Monthly GDP growth stalled in October on a decline in oil and gas output, a surprise flatlining of the economy on the heels of a significant tapering in the third quarter. Despite cooling substantially from last year’s roaring first half, the economy has continued performing robustly, notching notable gains in recent months. Unemployment hit a more than 11-year low in December as the labor market tightened further on record-setting job gains in the September–December period. As a result, real wages were up markedly from a year earlier. On the trade front, TPP-11 is expected to be signed in March; the multilateral deal has become an important hedge for the government as it navigates NAFTA renegotiations with the U.S. and Mexico.

Canada Economic Growth

GDP growth is expected to continue moderating towards potential this year as higher interest rates and the property market cool-off weigh on household spending. Downside risks from the possible scrapping of NAFTA will loom heavily on the economy over the short term. Business investment, infrastructure spending and extractive exports should increasingly drive growth over the medium term. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 2.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 1.8% in 2019.

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Canada Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.341.00 %Feb 21
Exchange Rate1.270.15 %Feb 22
Stock Market15,5080.23 %Feb 22

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