Cambodia Economic Forecast

Cambodia Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

The economy is likely growing at a solid pace so far this year. Tourist arrivals rose by 11% year-on-year in Q1, according to recent government data, with Chinese nationals accounting for the vast majority of visitors. This comes after growth reached a multi-year high in 2018, supported by strong garment exports, tourism inflows and FDI. Moreover, the current account deficit widened notably last year, amid rapid import growth linked to the construction and manufacturing sectors. On the political front, Prime Minister Hun Sen recently announced that China had pledged USD 89 million to boost the Cambodian military, and promised unspecified support if the EU removes preferential market treatment for Cambodian exports.

Cambodia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to moderate slightly this year amid slowing external demand, particularly in China, the U.S. and the EU, which will likely dampen momentum in the export sector. A potential faster-than-expected global economic slowdown and the possible withdrawal of preferential market access to the EU are the key downside risks to the outlook. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 6.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.6% in 2020.

Cambodia Economy Data

Population (million)15.115.315.515.816.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,0241,0961,1611,269-  
GDP (USD bn)15.516.818.120.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.1-1.6-1.7-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.434.132.533.735.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.341.421.421.441.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,9704,0504,0203,9904,025
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,0074,0114,0384,0364,030
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.9-9.9-9.4-8.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.0-1.7-1.7-1.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-3.2-3.5-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)9.811.712.012.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)16.713.614.09.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)  
International Reserves (USD)  
External Debt (% of GDP)46.247.351.751.1-  

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Cambodia Facts

Exchange Rate4,0470.05 %Jun 13

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