Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Flash estimates revealed that the economy gathered momentum in Q1, with growth quickening from the solid, domestic demand-led expansion in Q4 2018. The upturn was buoyed by upbeat external demand, which led export growth to hit a one-and-a-half year high. Internally, however, activity softened: Fixed investment eased noticeably while rising unemployment and inflation likely weighed on consumer spending, despite household incomes benefiting from substantial wage gains. This was evidenced by tepid retail sales growth in the quarter overall, which included the first decline in sales in nearly six years in February. Turning to Q2, available survey data hints that dynamics have remained broadly stable: On average, consumers were as pessimistic in April–May as in Q1, while confidence in the retail trade and services sectors slipped only marginally.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

The economy is expected to maintain a solid pace of growth this year, primarily buttressed by domestic demand. A tight job market and higher wages are seen supporting private consumption, while the continued absorption of EU structural funds and cheap borrowing costs should prop up fixed investment. Elevated global trade tensions and rising labor shortages cloud the outlook. Met the why particular analysts project growth of 3.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Bulgaria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.27.27.17.1
GDP per capita (EUR)5,7845,9376,3306,7767,141
GDP (EUR bn)41.942.845.348.150.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.91.33.63.93.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.52.74.33.54.8
Investment (annual variation in %)0.33.42.7-6.63.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.21.82.92.73.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.811.211.86.13.7
Unemployment Rate11.811.711.08.07.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-5.5-1.60.20.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.027.026.029.025.4
Money (annual variation in %)9.01.28.87.67.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.6-0.9-0.40.12.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.4-1.6-1.1-1.31.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.3-0.9-1.7-2.94.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.020.020.010.00.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)42.36.2-11.727.215.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.10.02.34.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.50.00.01.12.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.9-2.8-2.6-1.0-2.1
Exports (EUR billion)21.221.021.923.125.8
Imports (EUR billion)24.223.824.524.127.8
Exports (annual variation in %)7.8-0.94.25.411.5
Imports (annual variation in %)2.0-1.43.1-1.815.5
International Reserves (EUR)14.416.620.323.923.7
External Debt (% of GDP)88.091.974.071.166.0

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Bulgaria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.580.0 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate1.73-0.72 %Jun 13
Stock Market579-0.35 %Jun 13

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