Bulgaria Economic Outlook
July 31, 2018Economic activity appears to have kept pace in the second quarter thanks to a resilient domestic economy, led in large part by stronger household spending. Retail sales through May recovered from a weak first quarter, and unemployment hit an all-time low in June. Wage growth has been robust and, in turn, consumer confidence has been hovering near its one-decade high. Meanwhile, the first-quarter jump in fixed investment, which benefited from low interest rates and heavy EU-linked capital spending at the outset of the year, seems to have persisted; business confidence remains high and industrial capacity has increasingly tightened. Exports, on the other hand, began to soften in May after previously avoiding the drop in demand from the EU, and trade risks are seen mounting over the coming months as the bloc-wide slowdown hits the external sector. As for the country’s eventual adoption of the euro, progress was made in July as EU officials laid out their conditions for accession, which now include applying to join both the ERM-II and the bloc’s banking union sometime in the next year.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthLabor market gains are expected to slow this year, but household spending should still benefit from low unemployment and strong wage growth. Higher absorption of EU funds is expected to buttress fixed investment, which should see further support from the improving business climate and low interest rates. Sound fiscal policy should furthermore secure stronger FDI inflows. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 3.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2019.
Bulgaria Economy Data
5 years of Bulgaria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.97||0.0 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||1.73||-0.72 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||631||-0.35 %||Aug 15|
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Bulgaria Economic News
August 14, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.7% over the previous month in July, after a 0.1% month-on-month increase in June.
August 14, 2018
A preliminary release by the Statistical Institute showed that the economy grew 3.4% on an annual basis in the second quarter, marginally down from the revised 3.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in the first quarter (previously reported: +3.5% year-on-year).
July 16, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.1% on a month-on-month basis in June, easing from May’s 0.3% rise.
July 9, 2018
Industrial output rebounded on a monthly basis in May, growing 1.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms (April: -2.0% month-on-month s.a.). On an annual basis, industrial output in working day-adjusted terms was stable from the same month a year earlier in May, contrasting April’s 0.8% contraction.
June 13, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in May, moderating slightly from April’s 0.4% rise.