Bulgaria Economic Outlook
October 30, 2018Available data hints at another strong outturn for domestic demand in the third quarter, on the heels of a solid second-quarter performance. Household spending appears to have remained upbeat, with retail sales notching handsome gains through August and the unemployment rate hitting a fresh one-decade low in September. Moreover, despite a weak extractives sector weighing on gains in industrial output, the manufacturing sector has been recording impressive growth in recent months. Taken together with this year’s heavy absorption of EU structural funding, fixed investment looks set for another robust quarter. Meanwhile, the external sector continued to lose ground though August on waning demand from Europe; stronger imports also helped narrow the eight-month current account surplus significantly from a year earlier. In late October, the center-right government approved next year’s draft budget. Analysts see the government’s proposed boost to public-sector wages and education spending as an effort to shore up support ahead of next year’s European and local elections.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthHousehold spending is expected to slow next year due to slower employment growth and elevated inflation. That said, fixed investment should continue benefiting from cheap borrowing and strong absorption of EU funding. Meanwhile, a pullback in global trade is likely to curb export growth. Over the medium-term, sound fiscal metrics and an improved business climate should translate into greater FDI inflows. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.5% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2020.
Bulgaria Economy Data
5 years of Bulgaria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.93||0.0 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||1.73||-0.72 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||596||-0.35 %||Nov 15|
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Bulgaria Economic News
October 15, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month in September, following a 0.1% month-on-month increase in August.
September 13, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.1% over the previous month in August, following a 0.7% month-on-month increase in July.
September 11, 2018
In seasonally-adjusted terms, industrial output shrank 1.2% on a monthly basis in July (June: +0.8% month-on-month s.a.). On an annual basis, industrial output in working day-adjusted terms decelerated to 1.0% in July, coming in below June’s 3.6% expansion.
September 7, 2018
In line with the preliminary estimate, comprehensive data released by the Statistical Institute confirmed growth on an annual basis at a seasonally-adjusted 3.4% in the second quarter, just missing analysts’ expectations and down a couple notches from the 3.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in the first quarter. A breakdown by expenditure showed that fixed investment eased somewhat (Q2: +4.6% yoy s.a.; Q1: +7.0% yoy s.a.) amid looser industrial capacity.
August 14, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.7% over the previous month in July, after a 0.1% month-on-month increase in June.