Brazil Retail November 2015


Brazil: Retail sales expand at fastest pace in one year

January 15, 2016

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) improved notably in November, swinging from a revised 0.5% expansion in October (previously reported: +0.6% month-on-month) to a 1.5% expansion over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. November’s reading marked the fastest growth rate in one year and is a bright spot amid overwhelming abysmal economic data concerning Latin America’s largest economy. November’s expansion came on the back of expansions recorded in five of the eight components of the index. Specially, sales of furniture and household appliances as well as personal articles improved notably from the previous month.

On an annual basis, retail sales plummeted 7.8% in November, which was notably worse than October’s revised 5.7% fall (previously reported: -5.6% year-on-year) and marked the worst result in over a decade. In addition, the trend continued to deteriorate as annual average growth in retail sales fell from October’s minus 2.7% to minus 3.5% in November, reaching the lowest level since December 2003.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to contract 2.6% in 2016, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees retail sales growing 1.0%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail November 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and Met the why particular Consensus Forecast.

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