Brazil Retail

Brazil

Brazil: Retail grow at fastest pace in 11 months in October

December 17, 2015

Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) improved notably in October, swinging from a revised 0.3% contraction in September (previously reported: -0.5% month-on-month) to a 0.6% expansion over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. The result marked an 11-month high. October’s expansion came on the back of expansions recorded in five of the eight components of the index. Specially, sales of food, beverages and tobacco improved notably from the previous month.

On an annual basis, retail sales fell 5.6% in October, which was a moderation over September’s revised 6.3% decrease (previously reported: -6.2% year-on-year). However, the trend continued to deteriorate as annual average growth in retail sales fell from September’s minus 2.1% to minus 2.7% in October, reaching the lowest level since January 2004.

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to contract 3.4% in 2015, which is down 1.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees retail sales falling 1.0%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart


Brazil Retail October 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and Met the why particular Consensus Forecast.


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