Brazil Economic Outlook
January 16, 2018The economy is gaining momentum despite political uncertainty. GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter thanks to faster household consumption and a smaller fall in investment. Available data for the fourth quarter points to another pick-up in activity, although growth is not yet firing on all cylinders. Retail sales rebounded in November, and exports grew by double digits in December; however, consumer confidence edged down in the same month. In the political arena, the government postponed a vote on the crucial pension reform bill to February, to have more time to generate support for the bill. The move underscores the difficulty President Michel Temer is having in pushing through badly needed, but unpopular, measures to put government finances on a sustainable path. Legislation is expected to come to a standstill in the spring, as the October 2018 elections approach; the economy needs a reform-minded president to address lingering macroeconomic imbalances. Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who opposes Temer's policies, is currently leading in early polls, but it is uncertain if he will be eligible to run due to corruption charges.
Brazil Economic GrowthThe recovery is seen gaining speed this year, thanks to higher household spending and investment growth. Politics and a lack of reforms are the largest risks to Brazil’s economic trajectory, and are clouding the country’s outlook. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 2.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is seen edging up to 2.6%.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||11.14||-0.82 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||3.24||-0.13 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||73,268||-0.11 %||Dec 06|
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Brazil Economic News
January 11, 2018
Consumer prices in December rose 0.44% over the previous month, above November’s 0.28% rise.
January 9, 2018
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) rose 0.7% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in November, which contrasted October’s revised 0.7% fall (previously reported: -0.9% month-on-month).
January 5, 2018
In November, industrial production grew 0.2% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, down from the revised 0.3% increase (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month) registered in October.
January 2, 2018
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector weakened slightly in December.
January 2, 2018
Business sentiment in Brazil continued to climb in December, as it recovers from the lows of mid-2015.