Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

November 7, 2017

President Michel Temer survived another crucial vote on 25 October, and will avoid being put on trial for corruption charges. The final tally showed 251 deputies were in support of the president, who is facing the worst approval ratings on record. While continuing stability is key for the Brazilian economy’s recovery, the number is far below the 308 votes needed for a supermajority to pass the current version of the critical pension reform, which could be a bad omen for the bill’s fate. The reform is key to improving the country’s fiscal situation; however, the window for reforms is rapidly closing as politicians begin to eye next year’s elections. Meanwhile, incoming data suggests that the recovery is gaining steam, following the resumption of growth in the second quarter. In the three months up to September, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level seen in 2017, and both business and consumer confidence climbed in October.

Brazil Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)199201203204206
GDP per capita (USD)12,36412,27812,1168,7928,731
GDP (USD bn)2,4642,4682,4551,7981,799
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.93.00.5-3.8-3.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)1.93.70.3-6.4-5.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.53.52.3-3.9-4.2
Investment (annual variation in %)0.85.8-4.2-13.9-11.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.32.1-3.0-8.3-6.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.44.32.2-4.4-6.3
Unemployment Rate7.47.16.88.511.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.0-6.0-11.2-9.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.751.556.365.569.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.111.99.96.33.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.85.96.411.76.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.46.26.39.08.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)9.15.12.211.37.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.2511.0011.7514.2513.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)7.4-15.5-2.9-13.338.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.052.362.663.963.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.952.162.353.343.48
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.0-4.2-3.3-1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-74.2-74.8-114.2-59.4-23.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)19.42.3-4.019.747.7
Exports (USD billion)243242225191185
Imports (USD billion)223211229171138
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.3-0.2-7.0-15.1-3.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.47.4-4.4-25.2-19.8
International Reserves (USD)373359364356365
External Debt (% of GDP)13.312.714.418.618.0

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Brazil Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield11.04-0.82 %Nov 03
Exchange Rate3.25-0.13 %Nov 03
Stock Market74,363-0.11 %Nov 03

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Brazil Economic Growth

November 7, 2017

President Michel Temer survived another crucial vote on 25 October, and will avoid being put on trial for corruption charges. The final tally showed 251 deputies were in support of the president, who is facing the worst approval ratings on record. While continuing stability is key for the Brazilian economy’s recovery, the number is far below the 308 votes needed for a supermajority to pass the current version of the critical pension reform, which could be a bad omen for the bill’s fate. The reform is key to improving the country’s fiscal situation; however, the window for reforms is rapidly closing as politicians begin to eye next year’s elections. Meanwhile, incoming data suggests that the recovery is gaining steam, following the resumption of growth in the second quarter. In the three months up to September, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level seen in 2017, and both business and consumer confidence climbed in October.

Brazil Economic News

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