Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

Growth moderated in the final quarter of last year (Q4 2018: +3.3% year-on-year; Q3: +4.0% yoy), constrained by a spike in imports. Nevertheless, fundamentals remained healthy: Household spending maintained solid momentum supported by low inflation, while fixed investment bounced back. First-quarter economic activity likely softened, however. Lower remittances in Q1 seems to have pinched consumption, despite low price pressures, and a fall in LNG prices in the same period likely weighed on merchandise export growth. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings ratified Bolivia’s BB- rating with a stable outlook, citing that its low debt burden and resilient external sector should it is the fastest growing country in the region this year.

Bolivia Economic Growth

The economy should maintain solid momentum in the near-term. This year, household spending is expected to accelerate amid stronger credit growth, while new mining projects should buttress fix investment. A widening of the fiscal deficit ahead of October’s presidential election and volatility in commodity markets pose key downside risks to the outlook. Our panel expects the economy to expand 4.1% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.

Bolivia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.411.611.711.911.1
GDP per capita (USD)2,9483,1243,0863,1143,388
GDP (USD bn)30.733.033.133.937.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.85.54.94.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.45.65.83.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.79.95.03.411.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.7-3.4-6.9-6.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.137.011.646.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.717.116.3-3.98.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.23.04.02.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.84.13.62.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.418.007.367.827.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.916.916.906.946.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.966.916.906.916.95
Current Account (% of GDP)2.41.7-5.8-5.7-6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.70.6-1.9-1.9-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.52.1-1.2-1.5-1.6
Exports (USD billion)12.212.88.77.07.8
Imports (USD billion)9.711.79.88.59.3
Exports (annual variation in %)3.65.4-32.2-19.411.7
Imports (annual variation in %)12.911.1-7.8-13.59.3
International Reserves (USD)12.513.211.48.38.2
External Debt (% of GDP)26.727.030.032.5-  

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Bolivia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.93-0.14 %Jun 13

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