Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

October 30, 2018

Preliminary data revealed that the economy grew weakly in the first three quarters of 2018, increasing 0.8% year-on-year. A subdued performance by the oil sector, which has seen production wither in recent years, hampered activity. That said, the recovery showed some signs of strengthening towards the end of the third quarter, with industrial output gaining steam in September. Moreover, activity is seen firming in Q4 as new gas supplies come online and the banking sector revives. On the political front, the government submitted a draft budget for 2019 on 23 October. The budget projects a widening in the fiscal deficit to 2.3% of GDP, from the 1.3% of GDP expected for 2018, and details a moderate increase in spending as well as a rise in some public sector wages.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Higher oil and gas output, firm commodity prices and improving economic conditions in Russia economy should enable the recovery to strengthen next year. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, GDP is seen growing 3.0%.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.49.59.69.79.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,9267,9395,5253,9014,149
GDP (USD bn)74.275.253.037.911.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.82.81.1-3.80.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.8-0.72.4-0.5-3.4
Unemployment Rate5.04.95.05.05.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.614.435.050.7-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)19.06.1-50.233.00.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.6-0.27.514.87.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.41.44.012.412.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.753.503.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.781.561.761.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.791.031.601.73
Current Account (% of GDP)15.913.2-0.4-3.64.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.811.0-0.2-1.41.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)21.418.95.84.26.1
Exports (USD billion)31.728.315.613.215.2
Imports (USD billion)11.39.39.89.09.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.9-11.9-44.8-15.214.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-9.64.7-7.90.4
International Reserves (USD)14.213.85.04.05.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13.615.724.937.2-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Nov 15
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 15

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