Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

October 3, 2017

Azerbaijan’s economy has begun to show signs of revival. In August, despite a steeper headline GDP contraction of 1.1% annually, the economy’s non-oil sector registered a 2.4% expansion according to the Statistical Institute’s monthly GDP estimate. The improvement was powered by a strong performance in the non-oil industrial sector, as well as the first expansion in fixed investment in almost two years. Despite the multi-year economic slump caused by the global downturn in oil prices, households continued to spend at a healthy pace, with retail sales growth remaining positive. The improvement in the non-oil sector was further supported by strong overseas demand for Azerbaijani goods, while imports continued to contract, albeit at a slower pace.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)9.29.39.39.49.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,5948,0148,0673,6953,508
GDP (USD bn)69.874.375.434.833.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.25.82.81.1-3.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.61.8-0.72.4-0.4
Unemployment Rate0.80.80.60.6-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.6-0.5-1.2-0.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)13.912.811.228.337.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)25.519.06.1-50.233.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.33.6-0.27.514.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.12.41.44.012.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.004.753.503.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.780.781.561.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.780.791.031.60
Current Account (% of GDP)21.317.613.8-0.6-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)14.913.111.4-0.2-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)22.221.418.95.84.2
Exports (USD billion)32.631.728.315.613.2
Imports (USD billion)11.411.39.39.89.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.4-2.9-11.9-44.8-15.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.5-0.9-9.64.7-7.9
International Reserves (USD)11.614.213.85.04.0
External Debt (% of GDP)14.813.615.638.0-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.71-0.04 %Oct 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Oct 13

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Azerbaijan Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

The economy is expected to emerge from recession next year on the back of a recovery in oil and gas prices, and also thanks to an expanding non-oil sector. Our panel expects GDP to drop 0.5% in 2017 and expand 1.5% in 2018, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

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