Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

February 5, 2019

The economy accelerated markedly last year, with GDP growth climbing to 1.4% in 2018, from a meagre 0.1% expansion in 2017. A turnaround in the industrial sector, aided by a recovering energy sector, helped fuel an upturn in activity. In addition, retail trade also accelerated last year, and the agricultural sector posted a moderate improvement. While improving towards the end of the year, with petroleum output rising modestly in December, the energy sector remained downbeat, however, as oil prices tumbled in Q4.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to accelerate this year on a continued recovery in the oil sector and solid government spending. Lower-than-expected commodity prices and a prolonged downturn in the Russian economy are the main risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.49.59.69.79.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,9267,9395,5253,9014,149
GDP (USD bn)74.275.253.037.911.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.82.81.1-3.80.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.8-0.72.4-0.5-3.4
Unemployment Rate5.04.95.05.05.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.614.435.050.7-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)19.06.1-50.233.00.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.6-0.27.514.87.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.41.44.012.412.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.753.503.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.781.561.761.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.791.031.601.73
Current Account (% of GDP)15.913.2-0.4-3.64.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.811.0-0.2-1.41.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)21.418.95.84.26.1
Exports (USD billion)31.728.315.613.215.2
Imports (USD billion)11.39.39.89.09.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.9-11.9-44.8-15.214.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-9.64.7-7.90.4
International Reserves (USD)14.213.85.04.05.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13.615.724.937.2-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.71-0.66 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 14

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