Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

April 2, 2019

Growth picked up at the year’s outset, with oil production accelerating markedly over the same period of last year in January–February. Recently-released data revealed that the economy exported 50% more oil in January–February compared to the same period of 2018. Among non-oil activities, the information and communication services sector expanded at the fastest pace, while agricultural and industrial output also grew robustly over this period. The retail sector’s upturn, however, was more moderate. Adding to the slew of positive data, public finances also strengthened in January, as increased revenues from custom duties, VAT, and a road tax boosted the government’s coffers, swinging the budget to surplus.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to pick up this year, thanks to solid domestic dynamics and a gradual recovery in investment on rising investor confidence. Downside risks to the outlook, however, stem from the increasingly challenging global backdrop and a fall in commodity prices. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 2.0% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2020.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.49.59.69.79.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,9267,9395,5253,9014,149
GDP (USD bn)74.275.253.037.911.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.82.81.1-3.80.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.8-0.72.4-0.5-3.4
Unemployment Rate5.04.95.05.05.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.614.435.050.7-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)19.06.1-50.233.00.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.6-0.27.514.87.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.41.44.012.412.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.753.503.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.781.561.761.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.791.031.601.73
Current Account (% of GDP)15.913.2-0.4-3.64.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.811.0-0.2-1.41.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)21.418.95.84.26.1
Exports (USD billion)31.728.315.613.215.2
Imports (USD billion)11.39.39.89.09.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.9-11.9-44.8-15.214.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-9.64.7-7.90.4
International Reserves (USD)14.213.85.04.05.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13.615.724.937.2-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.71-0.66 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Apr 12

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