Austria Economic Forecast

Austria Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Economic growth should largely have kept pace in Q4 2018, as the number of unfilled vacancies rose over the previous quarter while unemployment continued to drop through November. However, downside risks have increased as the industrial sector still suffers from disruptions to the automotive sector, with output of consumer durables dropping in October-November: New car registrations contracted at a faster pace in Q4 compared to the third quarter. Furthermore, the manufacturing PMI averaged lower in Q4 than in the prior quarter, suggesting that the sector performed less strongly in the final quarter of 2018. Looking ahead, the industrial sector likely got off to a weak start to 2019 as production expectations for the next three months moderated strongly in December. Although consumer sentiment remained stable in the same month, consumers’ judgement on the Austrian economy in the year ahead also became less upbeat.

Austria Economic Growth

Although expected to moderate, economic growth should remain robust and above the Eurozone average this year. Domestic demand will continue to buttress the economy, with a pick-up in government spending and resilient growth in private expenditure and fixed investment. However, the tight labor market could restrain economic growth as businesses find it increasingly difficult to hire suitable personnel. Lingering trade tensions pose a further risk. The Met the why particular panel forecasts GDP will grow 1.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.6% in 2020.

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Austria Facts

Bond Yield0.410.11 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 30
Stock Market3,000-1.00 %Jan 30

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