Argentina Economic Outlook
February 13, 2018Recent data suggests economic growth cooled in the fourth quarter of 2017. Industrial production barely increased in December after eight consecutive months of expansion, and the index of economic activity lost steam in November. The external sector closed 2017 with the largest trade deficit on record and will likely cause the current account deficit to swell in Q4. Argentina’s widening current account deficit is becoming increasingly worrying, not only because it drives up the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks, but also because it is putting additional pressure on the Argentine peso and the country’s ballooning external debt obligations. The currency continued to depreciate in January at a moment when subsidies for basic products, such as energy and transportation, were slashed, contributing to stubbornly-high inflation. Despite additional subsidy cuts in the pipeline, the government’s fiscal spending and need to tap into international debt markets are expected to remain elevated in the foreseeable future.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe economy is set to grow at a faster pace in the next two years on the back of growth in fixed investment and private consumption; private consumption is nevertheless expected to decelerate from 2017’s print in part due to persistent inflation. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 3.0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 3.2%.
Argentina Economy Data
5 years of Argentina economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||19.95||0.45 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||33,125||2.26 %||Feb 22|
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Argentina Economic News
February 16, 2018
According to the National Statistics Institute (INDEC), national consumer prices rose 1.8% over the previous month in January, coming in below December’s 3.1% rise.
January 31, 2018
In December, industrial production expanded 0.3% over the same month in the previous year, according to the latest data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
January 26, 2018
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index rose from 43.2 points in December to 45.2 points in January.
January 25, 2018
In November, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) lost steam.
January 23, 2018
In December, exports contracted 2.4% in year-on-year terms, an improvement from the revised 4.2% contraction observed in November (previously reported: -4.9% year-on-year).