Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

Preliminary national accounts data revealed that the economy remained stuck in recession in the third quarter of 2018, as GDP shrank 1.6% annually amid a broad-based deterioration in economic activity. The country’s all-important oil sector posted yet another contraction in Q3, while the other key sectors—including agriculture, trade, construction and the production of diamonds and other minerals—also shrunk in the quarter. Meanwhile, available data suggests dynamics remained disappointing in the fourth quarter of 2018. Oil production fell in December from the previous month which, coupled with plummeting global oil prices, signaled another deterioration in the country’s vital sector. In addition, inflationary pressures intensified slightly at the end of Q4, following a prolonged downward trend, likely taking a bite out of private consumption growth.

Angola Economic Growth

The economy is expected to emerge from recession this year, propped up by more robust domestic demand, although analysts continue to downgrade the strength of the recovery. Gradually easing inflationary pressures should bolster higher household consumption, while ongoing economic reforms, reinforced by support from the IMF, are expected to bolster investment activity growth this year. Considering Angola’s chronic dependence on the oil sector, lower-than-projected global oil prices and lower-than-expected oil production remain the key downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2019, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.

Angola Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.025.826.627.428.2
GDP per capita (USD)5,4615,6484,3343,722-  
GDP (USD bn)137146116111-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.04.80.9-2.6-2.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.312.73.0-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.63.5-1.9-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.3-6.6-3.3-4.5-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.911.764.679.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.216.111.813.04.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.514.341.926.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.87.311.332.431.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.259.0011.0016.0018.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)97.60112.1135.3165.9165.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.5298.41120.1163.5165.8
Current Account (% of GDP)6.0-2.6-8.9-3.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.1-3.7-11.3-3.1-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.930.612.514.520.4
Exports (USD billion)68.259.233.227.634.4
Imports (USD billion)26.328.620.713.014.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.0-13.3-43.9-16.924.7
Imports (annual variation in %)11.18.5-27.6-37.07.1
International Reserves (USD)32.227.724.424.418.0
External Debt (% of GDP)20.624.731.542.6-  

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Angola Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate313.30.0 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 13

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