Angola Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019Preliminary national accounts data revealed that the economy remained stuck in recession in the third quarter of 2018, as GDP shrank 1.6% annually amid a broad-based deterioration in economic activity. The country’s all-important oil sector posted yet another contraction in Q3, while the other key sectors—including agriculture, trade, construction and the production of diamonds and other minerals—also shrunk in the quarter. Meanwhile, available data suggests dynamics remained disappointing in the fourth quarter of 2018. Oil production fell in December from the previous month which, coupled with plummeting global oil prices, signaled another deterioration in the country’s vital sector. In addition, inflationary pressures intensified slightly at the end of Q4, following a prolonged downward trend, likely taking a bite out of private consumption growth.
Angola Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to emerge from recession this year, propped up by more robust domestic demand, although analysts continue to downgrade the strength of the recovery. Gradually easing inflationary pressures should bolster higher household consumption, while ongoing economic reforms, reinforced by support from the IMF, are expected to bolster investment activity growth this year. Considering Angola’s chronic dependence on the oil sector, lower-than-projected global oil prices and lower-than-expected oil production remain the key downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2019, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.
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Angola Economic News
April 17, 2019
The economy returned to growth in the final quarter of 2018, according to national accounts data released by the Statistical Institute (INE) on 17 April.
April 15, 2019
According to the Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística), consumer prices in the province of Luanda rose 1.2% in March from the previous month, up slightly from February’s 1.0% increase.
April 11, 2019
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil rose from USD 65.2 per barrel (pb) in February to a five-month high of USD 66.8 pb in March.
March 29, 2019
At its meeting on 29 March, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the National Bank of Angola (Banco Nacional de Angola, BNA) kept the key policy rate stable at 15.75%.
March 19, 2019
The economic climate indicator (ICE, Indicador de Clima Económico) published by the Statistical Institute improved from minus 16 points in the third quarter to minus 12 points in the fourth quarter.