Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

April 24, 2018

The most recent data confirms that economic conditions remain challenging, despite a rebound in GDP growth last year and ongoing reform efforts to increase competitiveness. Industrial production in 2017 contracted, and economic sentiment in the fourth quarter of 2017 remained deeply entrenched in negative territory, although it ticked up slightly. Public spending is expected to be cut significantly this year as the government attempts to put the fiscal account on a more sustainable footing to lower the elevated public debt. On 17 April, authorities officially requested non-financial assistance from the IMF. They hope that the Fund will help Angola decrease its overreliance on the oil industry by supporting growth in the non-oil sector.

Angola Economic Growth

GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 2017’s soft print this year on the back of higher oil prices and invigorated economic activity in the non-oil sector, partly due to improved liquidity of foreign currency. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 1.8% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 2.2%.

Angola Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.025.826.627.428.2
GDP per capita (USD)5,4605,6444,3333,504-  
GDP (USD bn)13714611595.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.04.03.01.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.312.73.0-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.63.5-1.9-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.9-3.3-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.911.765.4-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)17.216.111.813.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.514.341.9-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.87.311.332.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)97.61112.9135.3165.9-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.259.0011.0016.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.5298.41120.1163.5-  
Current Account (% of GDP)6.0-2.6-8.9-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.1-3.7-11.3-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.230.012.514.8-  
Exports (USD billion)68.058.933.227.3-  
Imports (USD billion)27.828.920.712.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.3-13.4-43.9-17.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.03.9-27.6-39.6-  
International Reserves (USD)32.227.724.424.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.319.924.3-  -  

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Angola Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate232.60.0 %May 16
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 16

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