Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

The speed at which the new president has been initiating measures to jumpstart growth in the economy has caught analysts by surprise. Following his inauguration in late September, President João Lourenço has vowed to dismantle state monopolies and has reshuffled key government positions including the Central Bank governor and the secretary of state for oil. While it is uncertain if the president will succeed in pushing through deep-seated reforms, the changes were promising. They coincided, however, with a credit rating downgrade from B2 to B1 by Moody’s on 20 October. The agency noted that the country’s growth outlook remains constrained, despite higher oil prices. Furthermore, persistent weaknesses and imbalances in the economy such as a foreign currency shortage and a weak banking sector have been exacerbated by an increasing debt burden, which has nearly doubled in four years and could rise even further if the kwanza is devalued.

Angola Economic Growth

The Angolan economy is set to recover moderately in 2018 and 2019 amid higher oil prices. Nevertheless, growth is set to remain constrained as the non-oil sector remains plagued by market distortions, namely FX shortages. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 2.5% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 2.8%.

Angola Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)24.325.025.826.627.4
GDP per capita (USD)5,2745,4605,6444,3333,504
GDP (USD bn)12813714611595.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.55.04.03.01.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.88.312.73.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.21.63.5-1.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)6.7-3.8-4.9-3.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.532.911.765.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)6.517.216.111.813.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.07.77.514.341.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.38.87.311.332.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.259.259.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)95.8297.61112.9135.3165.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)95.3596.5298.41120.1163.5
Current Account (% of GDP)11.86.0-2.6-8.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)13.88.1-3.7-11.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)42.011.230.012.514.8
Exports (USD billion)71.168.058.933.227.3
Imports (USD billion)29.027.828.920.712.5
Exports (annual variation in %)38.7-4.3-13.4-43.9-17.7
Imports (annual variation in %)2.7-4.03.9-27.6-39.6
International Reserves (USD)32.232.227.724.424.4
External Debt (% of GDP)16.518.319.924.3-  

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Angola Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate165.90.0 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 06

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