Angola Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019Preliminary national accounts data revealed that the economy remained stuck in recession in the third quarter of 2018, as GDP shrank 1.6% annually amid a broad-based deterioration in economic activity. The country’s all-important oil sector posted yet another contraction in Q3, while the other key sectors—including agriculture, trade, construction and the production of diamonds and other minerals—also shrunk in the quarter. Meanwhile, available data suggests dynamics remained disappointing in the fourth quarter of 2018. Oil production fell in December from the previous month which, coupled with plummeting global oil prices, signaled another deterioration in the country’s vital sector. In addition, inflationary pressures intensified slightly at the end of Q4, following a prolonged downward trend, likely taking a bite out of private consumption growth.
Angola Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to emerge from recession this year, propped up by more robust domestic demand, although analysts continue to downgrade the strength of the recovery. Gradually easing inflationary pressures should bolster higher household consumption, while ongoing economic reforms, reinforced by support from the IMF, are expected to bolster investment activity growth this year. Considering Angola’s chronic dependence on the oil sector, lower-than-projected global oil prices and lower-than-expected oil production remain the key downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2019, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.
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|Exchange Rate||313.3||0.0 %||Feb 14|
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Angola Economic News
February 18, 2019
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil rose from USD 56.6 per barrel (pb) in December to 59.5 pb in January.
February 14, 2019
According to the Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística), consumer prices in the province of Luanda rose 1.1% in January from the previous month, down from December’s 1.5% increase and marking the lowest print since February 2018.
January 25, 2019
At its meeting on 25 January, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the National Bank of Angola (Banco Nacional de Angola, BNA) lowered the key policy rate by 75 basis points to 15.75%.
January 18, 2019
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil fell from USD 65.3 per barrel (pb) in November to USD 56.6 pb in December.
January 15, 2019
According to the Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística), consumer prices in the province of Luanda rose 1.5% in December from the previous month, ticking up from November’s 1.4% rise.