Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

The economy appears to have remained in the doldrums so far this year as large-scale anti-government protests, which erupted in February, rumble on. Scheduled presidential elections on 4 July are now likely to be delayed, reportedly by at least three months, as protestors continue to demand the country’s ruling elite step aside. Meanwhile, momentum has stalled in the all-important oil sector; crucially-needed energy law reforms to attract investors are now dead in the water, and major oil firms have reportedly suspended investment decisions in the country due to the political instability. On a more positive note, Italian energy giant ENI recently renewed its gas supply contract with Sonatrach until 2027, and a large gas field was discovered on 27 May.

Algeria Economic Growth

The growth outlook this year will crucially hinge on Sonatrach and its efforts to attract foreign investment, which are threatened by political instability and the lack of meaningful energy law reforms. High levels of youth unemployment and dwindling foreign reserves present further downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.

Algeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)38.339.111.011.841.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,4595,4654,1633,9034,114
GDP (USD bn)209214166159170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.83.73.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.43.23.62.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)8.66.45.73.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.2-1.40.61.52.3
Unemployment Rate9.811.611.211.511.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-8.0-16.9-13.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.17.214.919.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.612.911.73.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.32.94.86.45.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.004.003.503.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)78.4287.92117.1111.4114.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)79.6180.60110.4119.4111.9
Current Account (% of GDP)0.6-4.3-16.4-16.5-12.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.2-9.3-27.3-26.2-22.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.40.5-18.1-20.1-14.3
Exports (USD billion)64.460.134.629.334.4
Imports (USD billion)55.059.752.749.448.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.3-6.6-42.5-15.217.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.88.5-11.8-6.1-1.5
International Reserves (USD)19518014511597.9
External Debt (% of GDP)2.52.62.83.4-  

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Algeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate119.3-0.11 %Jun 13

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