Precious Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Precious Metals Price Outlook

Forecast for Q4 2018 increases for fifth consecutive month

Prices for precious metals increased slightly in November (0.4% month-on-month), rebounding from a steep 2.5% fall in October. Palladium led the increase in November due to strong demand as consumers are switching to gasoline-powered vehicles amid globally strong car sales, notably in China and the European Union. Gold and silver prices were broadly unchanged in November as a strong stream of U.S. economic data and upbeat sentiment around U.S. tax cuts reduced investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets.

The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle and positive prospects for the U.S. economy should limit gains in the gold and silver markets. That said, gold and silver prices will be highly determined by the level of geopolitical risks. In this regard, tensions in the Korean peninsula and next year’s election cycle in key countries, including Brazil, Egypt and Italy could boost political unrest, thereby pushing demand up for safe-haven assets. While demand for palladium, this year’s best performer among precious metals, should remain strong next year, increased supply could put a cap on price gains. As a result, analysts polled for this month’s survey see base metal prices for Q4 2018 unchanged from the same quarter in 2017.

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Precious Metals Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Gold1668.69  1411.71  1111.83  1159.8  1248.54  
Silver31.14  23.82  19.07  15.71  17.15  
Palladium643.47  725  803.44  690.55  614.03  
Platinum1549.48  1485.41  1383.61  1151.85  987.37  

Note:
Gold prices in USD per troy ounce (toz).
Silver prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
Palladium prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
Platinum prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
All prices are average of period (aop). 

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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