Precious Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Precious Metals Price Outlook

Geopolitical risks shore up prices

Prices for precious metals rose for the first time in three months in April as mounting geopolitical risks boosted demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and, to a lesser extent, silver. As a result, precious metal prices rose 0.4% on a month-on-month basis in April (March: -0.8% mom).

Gold prices benefited from rising geopolitical tensions including trade disputes between China and the United States and fears that Trump would reinstate economic sanctions against Iran. That said, strong economic growth and rising inflation expectations in the United States sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve would accelerate its tightening cycle, exerting downward pressure on gold prices. Along with heightened geopolitical tensions, silver prices were also supported by strong industrial usage of the commodity. Palladium and platinum prices both ended lower again in April. Palladium prices had been volatile in recent weeks on speculation that the U.S. would enact additional sanctions on Russia, the world’s largest supplier of palladium. In turn, platinum prices had been negatively affected by demand shifting away from diesel-run cars to gasoline or electric-powered vehicles.

Increasing political instability globally will continue to put upward pressure on precious metal prices, especially gold and silver. Moreover, industrial demand for palladium, platinum and silver is expected to remain strong this year due to robust global economic activity. Analysts polled for this month’s survey see precious metal prices for Q4 2018 rising 3.2% from the same quarter in 2017. The panel sees precious metal prices increasing 3.2% year-on-year again in Q4 2019.

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Precious Metals Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Gold1668.69  1668.69  1411.71  1411.71  1111.83  
Silver31.14  31.14  23.82  23.82  19.07  
Palladium643.47  643.47  725  725  803.44  
Platinum1549.48  1485.41  1383.61  1151.85  987.37  

Note:
Gold prices in USD per troy ounce (toz).
Silver prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
Palladium prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
Platinum prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
All prices are average of period (aop). 

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