Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

OPEC+ oil production cuts tighten global oil market in March

Energy prices expanded for the third month in a row in March, rising 4.3% month-on-month. The print was, nonetheless, below February’s 6.3% rise.

Oil and oil-related prices continued to benefit from the successful implementation of the oil cut deal led by OPEC and other key suppliers such as Russia. That said, despite the upward trend seen throughout this year, oil prices remain at a similar level as in the same period in 2018. Against this backdrop, countries participating in the deal are considering extending the oil output cuts beyond the June deadline. However, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the main architects of OPEC+, have different views; while Saudi Arabia would extend the curbs until the end of the year, Russia is only willing to accept a three-month prolongation. The final decision will likely be taken in a scheduled meeting in June. Whether the U.S. decides to drop waivers on Iran’s oil industry, which are currently due to end in May, will also influence oil prices in the coming months.  

Our panelists see energy prices falling 1.9% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. While Brent and WTI oil prices will remain broadly stable in annual terms, the drop will mostly stem from a sharp decline in natural gas prices, mostly due to a large base effect, as well as in thermal and coking coal prices due to a broader preference for cleaner energy. Our panel of analysts expects energy prices to fall again in annual terms in Q4 2020, declining 1.8%, reflecting the ongoing downward trend in coal prices as well as slightly lower oil prices due to global supply uncertainties.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  118.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  
Thermal Coal96.92  85.38  70.95  58.88  65.69  
Coking Coal 183.43  147.71  114.66  88.38  142.7  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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