Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Oil supply concerns propel energy prices in September

Energy prices increased briskly in September following the erratic trajectory observed over the previous three months, largely due to the rally in oil prices. Energy prices rose 5.5% month-on-month in September, contrasting August’s 1.0% decrease.

Reduced oil supply in Iran in the wake of the new round of U.S. economic sanctions, which will come into force on 4 November and will further afflict the country’s oil sector, is tightening global oil supply. Global oil output is also negatively affected by the perennial production decline in Venezuela as well as in Angola and Nigeria, while there is growing skepticism that Russia and Saudi Arabia will be able to completely offset the expected drawdown of Iranian oil from the global markets. Higher crude oil prices are also pushing up prices for its derivatives, including gasoil and gasoline. Moreover, uranium prices are benefiting from reduced supply and an expected increase in demand.

The boom in oil prices observed this year will prompt energy prices to rise a sharp 24.5% year-on-year in Q4 2018 (previous edition: +22.1% yoy). However, energy prices are expected to fall 4.3% in Q4 2019 as the ending of the OPEC-led oil cap deal and increasing supply in the United States will boost oil production, while less robust global growth will reduce demand for the black gold. In addition, the broader preference for cleaner energy will reduce demand for coal.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  118.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  62.96  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.71  114.58  90.93  129.68  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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