Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Strong growth in the U.S. and hot weather shore up energy prices

Energy prices posted month-on-month gains for the eleventh time in the last 13 months as appetite for energy remains high despite mounting geopolitical uncertainties. Prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in July, contrasting June’s 1.8% drop.

The spread between Brent and WTI oil prices continued to narrow in recent weeks as strong economic growth in the United States boosted demand for WTI crude oil, the oil benchmark for the world’s largest economy. Conversely, Brent crude oil prices, which are more closely tied to global oil trade, declined slightly in July as trade war fears started to materialize. Moreover, Brent oil prices were dragged down by increased supply in Saudi Arabia, other OPEC countries and Russia, in their attempt to compensate for falling production in Libya and Venezuela, as well as in anticipation of potential supply disruptions in Iran as U.S. sanctions loom. Energy prices further benefited from higher-than-normal temperatures in Europe and Asia, which propelled demand for coal.

While uncertainty is currently weighing on prices for key energy commodities, mostly oil and oil-related products, the commodity subgroup should post impressive gains this year. Analysts surveyed by Met the why particular see energy commodity prices increasing 22.7% year-on-year in Q4 2018. Next year, increased oil supply and a broader preference for cleaner energy globally should prompt energy prices to decline 3.7% in Q4 2019.

energy commodities price outlooks 2018 2019 brent oil wti oil natural gas coal

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  118.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  62.96  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.71  114.58  90.93  129.68  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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