Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

OPEC+ deal supports energy prices in January

Energy prices finally rebounded in January following a dismal performance in the previous two months. Energy prices were up 2.3% month-on-month, contrasting December’s 12.2% decrease.

Energy prices benefited from a strong increase in both WTI and Brent crude oil prices as the OPEC+ oil cut deal gradually tightens global oil markets. According to recent surveys, OPEC countries have already delivered almost three quarters of its target to reduce production by 800,000 (bpd) from October’s level, although Russia is currently lagging behind its OPEC allies. U.S. sanctions against Venezuela’s oil sector also pushed up prices for the black gold, especially in the United States. As a result of the recovery in oil prices, prices for oil-derivatives also gained ground in January. Conversely, cooling growth in China led the decline in both thermal and coking coal prices. Natural gas prices also fell in January due to mild weather so far this winter and despite inventories remaining significantly below the five-year average.

Our panelists see energy prices falling 0.5% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 (previous edition: +1.7% year-on-year) as lower prices for thermal coal, coking coal and natural gas will more than offset a recovery in oil prices. Our panel of analysts expects energy prices to decline in annual terms in Q4 2020, falling 7.4% on the back of lower prices for oil and, especially, its derivatives.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  118.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.76  4.26  2.63  2.55  
Thermal Coal96.92  85.38  70.95  58.88  65.69  
Coking Coal 183.43  147.71  114.66  88.38  142.7  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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