Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Surge in oil prices boosts energy prices

Oil prices continued to rise in April due to strong fundamentals and geopolitical factors. Higher oil prices also boosted prices for other oil-related commodities such as gasoline and gasoil. Energy prices rose 6.3% month-on-month in April (March: +1.4% month-on-month).

While resilient global growth continues to propel demand for oil, the strong compliance level to the oil-cap deal by Russia and OPEC members is limiting global oil crude supply. As a result, the oil market is quickly tightening, and OECD commercial stocks are now hovering around their five-year average, which is the de facto target to measure the success of the output cut agreement. Moreover, heightened political uncertainty, particularly related to the U.S. decision to reimpose sanctions against Iran, is adding to the bullish sentiment.

On the flip side, coking coal prices declined in April as supply disruptions in Australia’s Queensland coking coal terminal ended early in April, and demand from China was relatively soft. Thermal coal prices also performed poorly in April on the back of stricter environmental measures in China, and Chinese authorities’ decision to allow higher domestic coal production.

This year, energy prices will be propelled by a rally in prices for oil and oil-related products due to strong fundamentals and mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East. That said, the increase will be partially tamed by higher production of shale oil in the U.S. Stricter environmental regulations in China and a broader preference for cleaner energy globally will dampen demand for coal. Analysts surveyed by Met the why particular expect energy commodity prices to rise 9.6% year-on-year in Q4 2018 before logging a mild decline of 0.4% in Q4 2019.

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2012  2013  2013  2014  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  111.67  118.69  118.69  98.9  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  94.08  97.97  97.97  93.02  
Gasoline3.04  3.04  2.92  2.92  2.66  
Natural Gas2.76  2.76  3.73  3.73  4.34  
Thermal Coal98.17  98.17  85.83  85.83  72.54  
Coking Coal 252.1  252.1  147.28  147.28  116.6  
Uranium48.86  48.86  38.66  38.66  33.44  
Gasoil953.38  953.38  918.88  918.88  837.79  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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