Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

China’s tariffs and oversupply concerns send prices down again in July

Following a stellar start to the year, agricultural prices declined for two consecutive periods in June and July. Agricultural prices fell 4.3% month-on-month in July, a smaller drop than June’s 7.4% decrease.

Prices for corn and soybeans declined further in July following retaliatory tariffs that China imposed on U.S. agricultural products. Moreover, prospects of an excellent harvest for some commodities such as coffee and sugar, as well as favorable weather conditions in cocoa producing countries, exerted downward pressure on prices. Wheat prices, the sole category to post month-on-month gains in July, benefited from hot weather in Europe and Russia, on an anticipated reduction in supply.

Strong market fundamentals, along with a low base from last year, will push prices up this year. Our panel of analysts forecast an 15.9% annual increase in prices in Q4 2018. Agriculture prices are seen expanding 0.5% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1188.33  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

Sample Report

Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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