Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Agricultural prices increase for fourth consecutive month in January

Agricultural prices climbed for the fourth consecutive month in January, rising 1.0% month-on-month. Nevertheless, this was a marked deceleration from December’s 2.9% increase.

Almost all commodities in the group recorded gains in January compared to the previous month, with cocoa and wool leading the pack. Despite January’s gain, cocoa receded slightly towards the end of the month due to favorable weather conditions, which are expected to boost supply. Meanwhile, wool prices benefited from solid demand and supply concerns. Cotton prices, however, declined for the second consecutive month due to reports signaling subdued demand for this year.

Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect agricultural prices to increase 5.8% year-on-year in Q4 2019 (previous edition: +5.6% yoy) on solid demand for food, feed and biofuel. Next year, agricultural prices are set to continue rising, with Met the why particular panelists expecting a 3.7% increase in Q4 2020 in annual terms.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1188.33  1171.7  1147.33  1198.43  1293.69  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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