Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Strong demand and supply concerns continue to propel prices

The rally in agricultural prices seen in Q1 extended to April on the back of strong demand for industrial usages, food supplies and animal feed. Moreover, bad weather in some key producing areas such Argentina and Western Africa, as well as a slow start to the planting season in the United States, are also propelling agricultural prices. U.S. farmers are increasingly concerned about the ongoing tit-for-tat trade war between China and the U.S., as it could lead the Asian country to reduce imports of some U.S. agricultural products, namely soybeans. China currently buys more than half of U.S. soybean exports, and a sharp reduction in Chinese purchases of the legume would send prices down.

Agricultural prices grew 0.8% on a month-on-month basis in April (March: +3.9% mom). Five out of the eight agriculture commodities tracked by Met the why particular saw price gains in April, with cocoa recording the largest increase, followed by wool. Conversely, prices for coffee, cotton and wheat fell in the month. Sugar prices declined for the fifth consecutive month in April as a record crop in India is keeping the sugar market oversupplied.

Fears of supply shortages and strong demand for agricultural products will continue to add upward pressure further down the road. Our panel of analysts forecasts a 18.5% annual increase in Q4 2018. Agriculture prices are seen expanding a robust 5.2% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  2012  2013  2013  2014  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1454.53  1419.78  1419.78  1250.72  
Wheat749.42  749.42  699.94  699.94  578.22  
Cocoa2390.93  2390.93  2441.23  2441.23  3064.48  
Coffee175.1  175.1  122.21  122.21  171.43  
Cotton74.43  74.43  79.63  79.63  73.38  
Sugar21.54  21.54  17.69  17.69  16.99  
Wool1188.33  1188.33  1171.7  1171.7  1147.33  

Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

Sample Report

Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities


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