Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Recovery in agriculture prices consolidates in November

Agriculture prices continued to slowly gain traction, expanding at the fastest pace in over one year in November (+2.2% month-on-month). Although variations in agriculture commodity prices largely depend on developments in each market, the rebound in October and November likely reflected the impact of higher energy prices, since agriculture is energy intensive. Wool prices continued to trade at record highs due to soaring demand from China and Europe, while supply remains tight.

Going forward, our panel of analysts considers that the outlook for agricultural commodities remains positive. They forecast a 5.7% annual increase in Q4 2018, from a projected 3.3% year-on-year rise in Q4 2017. Next year, sugar prices should recover from this year’s dismal performance as more producers switch to producing ethanol. Lower production for corn in key countries such as Brazil and China will likely also boost prices. Despite a potential surplus, coffee and cocoa prices should benefit from resilient demand.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Oats367.32  387.48  112.11  284.65  255.52  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1188.33  1171.7  1147.33  1198.43  1293.69  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Oats prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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