Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Tighter markets send prices higher in January

Despite ample supply due to no major weather disruptions last year, agriculture prices are gradually recovering following years of abundant production that put a cap on prices. Strong demand for agriculture products is driving the recovery as biofuel consumption remains strong, and there is a general increase in demand for food supplies and animal feed. Agriculture prices rose 1.6% on a month-on-month basis in January (December: -0.9% mom). Eight out of the nine agriculture commodities tracked by Met the why particular recorded price gains in January, with the largest increases in the prices of cotton and oats. Conversely, prices for sugar declined in the month due to stronger-than-expected output in India and potential changes to ethanol policy in Brazil. The Brazilian government is considering lifting the import tariff on ethanol.

Agriculture prices will be supported this year by increased demand for food, feed and industrial usages. Our panel of analysts forecast a 11.5% annual increase in Q4 2018, more than reversing the 0.9% decline in Q4 2017. Next year, agriculture prices are seen expanding 3.7% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

 

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Oats367.32  387.48  112.11  284.65  255.52  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1188.33  1171.7  1147.33  1198.43  1293.69  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Oats prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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