Consumption in Venezuela
Venezuela - Consumption
Recent data corroborate economic recession in Venezuela
GDP contracted 2.3% in Q3, which followed the 4.9% drop tallied in Q2 and the 4.8% decline observed in Q1, according to economic figures released by the Central Bank on 30 December. These data, which represented the first official GDP figures published for 2014, confirm that the Venezuelan economy entered into recession last year.
The quarterly reading reflected a less negative contribution from domestic demand, while the external sector deteriorated. Private consumption fell 1.6% in Q3 (Q2: -4.3% year-on-year), while government consumption expanded 2.0% (Q2: 0.0% yoy). Although fixed investment experienced a severe 9.3% drop in Q3, it was an improvement compared to the 18.0% contraction tallied in the previous quarter.
On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services improved from an 8.9% contraction in Q2 to a 2.7% drop in Q3. In addition, imports fell 5.2% over the same quarter in annual terms, which was up from the sharp 18.4% decrease observed in the previous quarter. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 7.1 percentage points in the second quarter to 2.0 percentage points in the third quarter.
While economic activity in the oil sector was broadly stable in Q3 and registered a 0.3% increase (Q2: +0.4% yoy), the downward trend in the non-oil businesses eased somewhat (Q2: -4.7 yoy; Q3: -2.5% yoy).
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to decline 3.3% in 2014, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2015, the panel sees the economy contracting 2.0%.
Venezuela - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||4.7||-3.4||-7.8||-||-|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Venezuela Consumption Chart
Source: Venezuela Central Bank and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||5,701||2.04 %||Jan 21|
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September 11, 2018
On 20 August, a series of far-reaching economic reforms came into effect as President Nicolás Maduro once again strived to tackle spiraling inflation, stabilize the freefalling currency and overcome the deep economic crisis gripping the country.
July 9, 2018
At the twentieth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 28 June, the bolivar sold at 134,262.5 VEF per EUR (approximately 115,000 VEF per USD), weakening 20.1% from the 111,734.4 VEF per EUR (approximately 96,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 25 June.
July 5, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil came in at USD 64.5 per barrel (pb) in June, falling 1.2% from May’s average of USD 65.2 pb.
June 11, 2018
At the seventeenth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 8 June, the bolivar sold at 94,112 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD), weakening 0.8% from the 93,392 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 1 June.
June 8, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil reached USD 65.2 per barrel (pb) in May, the highest level in over three years.