Inflation in USA
USA - Inflation (end of period)
Inflation stable in July at six-and-a-half year high
Consumer prices rose 0.2% from the previous month in July, up from June’s 0.1% increase. The result was in line with market expectations and was driven by a 0.3% month-on-month increase in prices for shelter, which represented more than half of the overall print. This more than compensated for lower energy prices, which recorded their second consecutive monthly decline as electricity and utility gas prices fell, as did prices at the pump. Meanwhile, inflation was stable at June’s 2.9% in July, the highest figure in six-and-a-half years.
Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile items including food and energy prices, also rose 0.2% from the previous month in July, unchanged from June and in line with market expectations. Aside from the increase in shelter prices, the figure reflected higher prices for transportation services and vehicles: Used vehicles and trucks recorded their biggest monthly price gains of the year. However, lower prices for apparel and medical care commodities weighed on the reading.
The most noteworthy reading in this July report was core inflation, which ticked up from 2.3% in June to 2.4% in July—the highest print in almost 11 years. With core PCE inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—poised to follow a similar trend, this figure will likely be of importance for the next monetary policy decisions. As of its 12–13 June meeting, the Fed had signaled that its members were leaning towards four interest rate hikes in 2018. With the current strength of core consumer price pressures, and the prospect of additional impact on prices from the ongoing and escalating trade dispute between the United States and China, the July core inflation reading will likely push the Fed to be more hawkish, which makes the case for a fourth rate hike this year even more likely. The majority of our panelists expects two rate hikes to be delivered at the September and December Fed meetings, respectively. The next FOMC meeting is set for 25–26 September.
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel expects inflation to average 2.3%.
United States - Inflation (eop) Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||1.5||0.7||0.7||2.1||2.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United States Inflation (eop) Chart
United States Facts
|Bond Yield||2.86||-0.43 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||25,162||0.02 %||Aug 15|
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August 11, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.2% from the previous month in July, up from June’s 0.1% increase.
United States: Unemployment ticks down in July on robust payroll expansion, while wage growth remains muted
August 3, 2018
U.S. non-farm payrolls continued to expand in July, reflecting the fundamental robustness of the U.S.
August 1, 2018
At its 31 July–1 August monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously decided to maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at between 1.75% and 2.00%.
United States: ISM manufacturing index cools in July as capacity stress and trade-related uncertainty start to bite
August 1, 2018
The U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of moderating in July, despite remaining on a well above-trend growth path.
July 31, 2018
Consumer confidence ticked up marginally in July, contrasting the modest decline recorded in the previous month.