Inflation in USA
USA - Inflation
Inflation edges up in October on higher fuel costs
Consumer prices rose 0.3% from the previous month in October, up from September’s 0.1% increase and matching analysts’ expectations. The result was driven largely by a surge in energy prices, mainly commodities such as gasoline and fuel oil. Core consumer prices—which exclude volatile items such as food and energy prices—rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, up from September’s 0.1% thanks notably to a rebound in the price of used cars and trucks. Meanwhile, inflation increased from 2.3% in September to 2.5% in October, also matching expectations.
Core inflation—one of the most closely watched indicators of the CPI report, as it is an important index for evaluating possible changes in monetary policy decisions from the Fed—came in at 2.1% in October, below September’s print and market expectations, both at 2.2%. Nevertheless, the print continues to support the thesis of gradual rate hikes from the Fed over the near-term, with a likely increase of 25 basis points at its next meeting in December—this is the scenario most widely expected by Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists.
Looking ahead, the recent fall in crude oil prices should moderate energy price pressures in coming months, but core inflation is likely to remain tilted to the upside. According to James Knightley, chief international economist at ING: “Price pressures will continue to strengthen thanks to strong growth and a lack of spare capacity. Additionally, wages are rising and this is a huge cost input given the US is largely service sector economy while the probability of higher trade tariffs next year will add further upside pressure.”
U.S. Inflation Forecast
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 2.3% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel expects inflation to average 2.1%.
United States - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.5||1.6||0.1||1.3||2.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United States Inflation Chart
United States Facts
|Bond Yield||2.89||-0.43 %||Dec 11|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||24,370||0.02 %||Dec 11|
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December 7, 2018
The November jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows payroll gains softened considerably compared to the previous month.
December 5, 2018
The widely anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on 30 November–1 December concluded with an agreement to temporarily halt the escalation of the trade dispute between the world’s two economic giants.
December 3, 2018
The U.S. manufacturing sector gained steam in November after a softer performance in October.
United States: Second estimate leaves Q3 headline growth unchanged; points to softer consumption, higher investment and inventories
November 28, 2018
A second estimate of third quarter GDP released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) left headline growth unrevised at a solid 3.5% seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR).
November 27, 2018
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence fell from 137.9 in October to 135.7 in November, missing market expectations of 136.5.