Unemployment in United Kingdom
United Kingdom - Unemployment
Unemployment rate dips in the first quarter, but wage growth slips
In the January-March period, the unemployment rate fell to a new multi-decade low of 3.8%, while the employment rate was the joint-highest on record. That said, employment growth came in below market expectations at 99,000—potentially a sign of Brexit uncertainty weighing on hiring decisions—while nominal earnings growth excluding bonuses dipped for the second consecutive rolling quarter.
Looking ahead, despite the recent drop-off, nominal wage growth should continue to comfortably outpace inflation. In its May Inflation Report, the Bank of England penciled in 3% growth in total pay for 2019. Coupled with low unemployment, this should support private consumption.
James Smith, an economist at ING, sounds a note of caution: “there are some early warning signs emerging from the jobs market. Employment growth has slowed since the start of the year, which tallies with various survey indicators that have hinted at reduced appetite to hire […]. Meanwhile, the number of people on the unemployed claimant count has been gradually rising.”
Our panelists currently see the unemployment rate averaging 4.1% in 2019 and 4.3% in 2020, while real disposable income is seen increasing 1.5% in both 2019 and 2020. A new Consensus Forecast will be published on 28 May.
United Kingdom - Unemployment Data
|Unemployment (% of active population)||7.6||6.2||5.4||4.9||4.4|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United Kingdom Unemployment Chart
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).
United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.11||-3.04 %||May 13|
|Exchange Rate||1.30||-0.35 %||May 13|
|Stock Market||7,164||-0.26 %||May 13|
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May 22, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in April over the previous month, up from March’s 0.2% increase.
May 14, 2019
In the January-March period, the unemployment rate fell to a new multi-decade low of 3.8%, while the employment rate was the joint-highest on record.
May 11, 2019
Growth accelerated to 0.5% in quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1 2019 (Q4 2018: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter), according to preliminary data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
May 11, 2019
Industrial production rose 0.7% in March over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, following February’s 0.6% increase.
United Kingdom: Services PMI edges back into positive territory in April, manufacturing PMI dips as stockpiling eases
May 3, 2019
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from a multi-year low of 48.9 in March to 50.4 in April.