GDP per capita in Turkey
Turkey - GDP per capita (U.S. Dollars)
Economy contracts sharply in Q4 2018
According to data released by Turkstat on 11 March, the Turkish economy shrank 3.0% in the fourth quarter of last year, with the aftereffects of the currency crisis cooling activity. Q4’s reading came after a revised 1.8% expansion in Q3 (previously reported: +1.6% yoy), which meant growth for 2018 as a whole came in at 2.6%, the weakest reading since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009.
Domestic demand collapsed in the fourth quarter. Private consumption and fixed investment dropped 8.9% and 12.9% respectively (Q3: +0.8% and -4.7% respectively) amid depressed sentiment, high inflation and tight financial conditions. Moreover, public consumption growth weakened (Q4: +0.5% yoy; Q3: +3.4% yoy), likely the consequence of the government tightening its fiscal belt in efforts to convince markets of its commitment to fiscal prudence.
In contrast, the external sector strengthened in Q4, due to lackluster domestic demand and the weak lira supporting export competitiveness. Exports of goods and services increased 11.6% (Q3: +13.6% yoy), while imports contracted 24.4% (Q3: -16.8% yoy). As a result, the external sector contributed 8.4 percentage points to growth, up from Q3’s contribution of 6.7 percentage points.
Looking ahead, the economy is likely to contract in H1, as still-elevated price pressures, tight financial conditions and weak sentiment depress domestic activity. However, the external sector should continue to provide support and the economy ought to recover somewhat in the second half of the year as interest rates fall and sentiment rebounds. Moreover, as Muhammet Mercan, chief Turkey economist at ING, states: “In recent months, the government has announced a number of stimulus measures for both households and companies which can be helpful for economic recovery.”
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP contracting 0.3% in 2019, before expanding by 3.0% in 2020.
Turkey - GDP per capita (USD) Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||12,386||12,026||11,898||11,805||11,536|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||14.50||-0.09 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||5.23||-0.85 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||114,189||1.41 %||Jan 30|
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April 22, 2019
Consumer confidence in Turkey rose from 59.4 in March to 63.5 in April, marking the highest reading since August last year.
April 16, 2019
Industrial production dropped 5.1% year-on-year in February on calendar-adjusted terms, which is an improvement compared to the downwardly revised 7.4% contraction in January (previously reported: -7.3% year-on-year).
April 11, 2019
The current account deficit widened slightly to USD 718 million in February from a revised USD 589 million in January (previously reported: USD 811 million deficit); however, the print is down markedly from the USD 3.8 billion deficit recorded in February 2018.
April 1, 2019
At the close of the first quarter of 2019, Turkey’s manufacturing remained in a tough spot despite an uptick in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 47.2 from 44.6 in February.
March 25, 2019
The Real Sector Confidence Index published by the Central Bank increased from 97.2 in February to 112.1 in March, the third consecutive monthly improvement.