GDP in Taiwan

Taiwan GDP | Economic News & Forecasts

Taiwan - GDP

Growth slows markedly in Q3 on sharp export deceleration amid a high base effect

A preliminary estimate shows that economic growth softened significantly in the third quarter, largely due to a deceleration within the all-important trade sector—which suffered from a high export base effect from Q3 2017. GDP expanded 2.3% annually in Q3, down from Q2’s 3.3% but still slightly ahead of market expectations of 2.2%. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, however, GDP growth inched up to 0.5% in Q3 from 0.4% in Q1.

This quarter’s growth print was characterized by significant weaker internal consumption and external demand dynamics, partly offset by a sharp rebound in total investment. Hampered by weaker consumer confidence in the quarter amid the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, private consumption growth slowed to 2.6% year-on-year in Q2 (Q3: +1.9% yoy), its weakest showing in one-and-a-half years. Government spending meanwhile contracted 1.4% in the quarter, sharply contrasting the 5.8% annual growth logged in Q2.

Total investment, on the other hand, logged the best showing of this quarter’s reading, rebounding sharply to 17.5% annual growth after four consecutive quarterly contractions. It must be noted, however, that this strong performance was partly the consequence of a low base effect, after investment contracted markedly in Q3 2017. Although detailed investment data is not available in this advance release, Nomura analysts suggest a build-up of inventories could be behind the high growth figure, while construction-related investment is also likely to have picked up.

Lastly, the performance of the external sector deteriorated markedly in Q3 as exports softened while imports accelerated. Exports of goods and services grew only 1.4% annually in Q3, down from 6.3% in Q2, while growth in imports of goods and services inched up to 5.2% (Q2: +4.5% yoy). As a result, the external sector detracted 1.9 points from GDP growth in Q3, after contributing 1.7 percentage points in Q2.

The government expects GDP to expand 2.5% in 2019. Last month, Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists projected GDP growth of 2.3% in 2019, which was unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel estimated economic growth of 2.1%. Our latest forecasts will be available in the 9 November publication.

Taiwan - GDP Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.2  4.0  0.8  1.4  2.9  

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Taiwan GDP Chart

Taiwan GDP
Note: Annual variation of gross domestic product (GDP) in %.
Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics and Met the why particular calculations.

Taiwan Facts

Bond Yield0.881.28 %Jan 21
Exchange Rate30.900.07 %Jan 21
Stock Market9,8890.37 %Jan 21

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