Investment in Spain
Spain - Investment
Second release revises Q4 growth slightly down
A second GDP estimate, released by the National Statistical Institute (INE) on 29 March, puts growth a notch below the first calculation. The economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% from the previous quarter in Q4 (previously reported: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter s.a.), marginally up from the 0.5% expansion recorded in the third quarter (previously reported: +0.6% qoq s.a.) of the year and remaining remarkably resilient in comparison to the Eurozone average. In year-on-year terms, growth was recorded at 2.3%, slightly below Q3’s 2.5% outturn. For the year, meanwhile, growth came in at 2.5%, decelerating from the 3.0% expansion logged in 2017.
Both domestic and external demand drove the overall expansion in Q4. Private consumption was revised down to 0.4% in quarter-on-quarter terms (previously reported: +0.5% qoq), easing from Q3’s 0.6%. Meanwhile, government spending was also downwardly revised to 0.4% (previously reported: +1.2% qoq), putting it below Q3’s 0.8% outturn. Lastly, fixed investment declined 0.2% quarter-on-quarter from a revised 0.2% rise in Q3 (previously reported: +0.8% qoq), largely reflecting a marked contraction of investment in machinery and equipment.
Meanwhile, external sector metrics fell in the second release. Exports of goods and services rose 0.7% from the previous quarter (previously reported: +1.9% qoq), rebounding from the 0.8% dip recorded in Q3 (previously reported: -0.9% qoq). On the other hand, import growth was flat in Q4 (previously reported: 1.1% qoq), recovering from the 0.9% drop in Q3 (previously reported: -0.2% qoq). Nevertheless, the net contribution of the external sector to growth was still positive.
Looking ahead, growth is expected to wane further this year, in line with the slowdown that began back in 2016. Weaker employment gains are seen weighing on private consumption, while tightening financial conditions could drag on capital spending growth. In addition, the vital tourism industry—which has been the country’s main source of growth and jobs during the post-crisis period—is losing steam, posing a major downside risk to the outlook.
The Central Bank expects the economy to grow 2.2% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists project that GDP will expand 2.2% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, panelists see the economy growing 1.8%.
Spain - Investment Data
|Investment (annual variation in %)||-3.4||4.7||6.5||3.3||5.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||1.09||5.62 %||Apr 18|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Apr 22|
|Stock Market||9,582||-0.74 %||Apr 18|
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April 5, 2019
Industrial production slipped 0.3% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms in February, contrasting January’s revised 2.7% increase (previously reported: +2.4% year-on-year).
April 3, 2019
Reflecting stronger activity growth in both the services and manufacturing sectors, the IHS Markit composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 53.5 in February to 55.4 in March, a 11-month high.
March 29, 2019
Spain’s current account balance recorded a deficit of EUR 1.5 billion in January, which was wider than the EUR 0.6 billion deficit recorded in January 2018 and significantly more so than the EUR 4.1 billion surplus recorded in December 2018.
March 29, 2019
Retail sales rose 1.7% in year-on-year terms in February, matching January’s result.
March 29, 2019
A second GDP estimate, released by the National Statistical Institute (INE) on 29 March, puts growth a notch below the first calculation.