Investment in Russia
Russia - Investment
Rosstat revises Q3 growth up slightly
A comprehensive estimate of national accounts data released by Rosstat on 29 December revealed that the Russian economy grew 1.5% over the same period of the previous year in the third quarter of 2018, slightly above the preliminary reading of a 1.3% expansion. Despite the upward revision, the recovery still lost steam from Q2’s 1.9% growth. The deceleration was driven by weakening consumption dynamics as well as a poor performance by the agricultural sector which was hit with unfavorable weather and a late harvest.
Household consumption growth slid to 2.1% in the third quarter, the worst result since Q1 2017 (Q2 2018: +2.6% year-on-year). Plunging consumer sentiment after the government announced an unpopular hike in the retirement age and the VAT tax likely plagued household spending. In addition, government spending fell 0.3%, contrasting the second quarter’s 0.6% increase, as the government pursues a prudent fiscal policy. However, fixed investment growth was a bright spot in the national accounts data, with investment rising 2.8%, notably above Q2’s 1.0% increase.
Dynamics in the external sector were also lackluster in the third quarter. Export growth fell from a robust 7.3% in Q2 to 4.5% in Q3, weighed on by slower global trade and constrained oil output. Meanwhile, imports stuttered recording zero growth, reflecting a weak domestic economy.
Along with detailed third quarter data, Rosstat also released revised annual GDP figures in December. Notably, Rosstat revised 2016’s figure from a 0.2% contraction to a 0.3% expansion. Similarly, 2017’s growth was revised up a notch revealing that the economy was on a slightly firmer footing than previously thought.
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists project that Russia’s GDP will increase 1.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Panelists expect the economy will expand 1.7% in 2020.
Russia - Investment Data
|Investment (annual variation in %)||1.3||-1.8||-11.2||0.8||4.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||8.26||0.13 %||Jan 21|
|Exchange Rate||66.33||-0.12 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||2,468||-1.03 %||Jan 21|
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January 17, 2019
The consumer confidence index published by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) dropped to minus 17 points in the final quarter of 2018, deteriorating from the third quarter’s minus 14 points.
December 29, 2018
Leading indicators suggest that business conditions in Russia weakened slightly at the end of 2018.
December 29, 2018
According to preliminary data, in December, consumer prices rose 0.8% from the previous month, above the 0.5% increase recorded in November and the sharpest rise in nearly three years.
December 29, 2018
A comprehensive estimate of national accounts data released by Rosstat on 29 December revealed that the Russian economy grew 1.5% over the same period of the previous year in the third quarter of 2018, slightly above the preliminary reading of a 1.3% expansion.
December 22, 2018
Merchandise exports totaled USD 41.3 billion in October, which represented a robust 30.8% expansion from the USD 31.6 billion sum recorded in the same month in 2017.