Interest Rate in Russia
Russia - Interest Rate
Central Bank pauses easing cycle in April
At its 27 April meeting, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) decided to hold the key interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, a move widely expected by market analysts. The decision marked a pause in the Bank’s easing cycle that has brought the key interest rate to the lowest level since April 2014.
Heightened volatility in Russian financial markets and a notable depreciation in the ruble caused the CBR to halt its easing cycle. Russian assets have come under pressure after a fresh round of sanctions was imposed by the U.S. at the start of April, and the notable plunge in the value of the ruble has ramped up risks to the inflation outlook. In its accompanying statement, the Bank commented that the tense geopolitical backdrop and a weak ruble could cause inflation to quicken, but it stated that it does not see a risk of it overshooting the 4.0% target.
Looking ahead, the Bank signaled that it will resume cutting the interest rate, but likely at a more subdued pace than expected prior to April’s events. The Bank reiterated that it plans to complete the transition to neutral monetary policy by the end of the year; however, the reduction in rates needed to bring about neutral monetary conditions has lessened in the past month given rising global interest rates and a higher country risk premium for Russia. Commenting on the future of the key rate, Anatoliy A Shal, Economist at JPMorgan adds:
“Given the more cautious forward guidance from the CBR, we lift our end-2018 rate forecast to 6.75%, from 6.5%, with the next cut pushed back into September from June. We had highlighted upside risks to our end-year rate forecast and the statement confirmed the CBR’s more cautious approach to policymaking. The higher rate profile increases downside risks to our 1.6% growth forecast in 2018 and 2019.”
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 15 June 2018.
Met the why particular panelists see the key interest rate ending 2018 at 6.56%. In 2019, panelists see the Central Bank lowering the monetary policy rate further, with a Consensus Forecast for the end of the year of 6.15%.
Russia - Interest Rate Data
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||5.50||17.00||11.00||11.00||7.75|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Russia Interest Rate Chart
Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR).
|Bond Yield||7.55||0.13 %||Jun 14|
|Exchange Rate||63.12||-0.12 %||Jun 14|
|Stock Market||2,253||-1.03 %||Jun 14|
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
June 8, 2018
Merchandise exports totaled USD 36.2 billion in April, which represented a robust 38.9% expansion from the USD 26.1 billion sum recorded in the same month of the previous year.
June 5, 2018
In May, consumer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month, matching April’s reading and market expectations.
May 31, 2018
Industrial production picked up in April, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).
May 17, 2018
A preliminary estimate of national accounts data released by Rosstat on 16 May revealed that the Russian recovery got back on track in the first quarter after a sharp slowdown at the end of last year.
May 11, 2018
Merchandise exports totaled USD 36.9 billion in March, recording a healthy 17.8% expansion from the USD 31.3 billion observed in the same month of 2017.