Interest Rate in Russia
Russia - Interest Rate
Central Bank holds key rate unchanged again in July
At its 27 July meeting, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) decided to hold the key interest rate unchanged at 7.25% for the third consecutive meeting. The decision met market analysts’ expectations. Over the past two years, the Bank had embarked on a notable easing cycle amid historically low inflation that brought the key interest rate to the lowest level since April 2014. However, rising upside risks to the inflation outlook led the Bank to pause its easing cycle in April.
Although inflation is currently below the Bank’s 4.0% target, a planned hike in the value added tax at the start of 2019 will stoke price pressures and prompted the Bank to keep the key rate unchanged in July. In the accompanying statement, the Bank commented that it sees inflation temporarily overshooting its target at the start of next year due to the rise in the VAT, before returning to 4.0% in 2020. The Bank also added that risks to the inflationary outlook are tilted towards higher price pressures as uncertainty lingers over the full effects of higher taxes, while volatile global financial markets could weigh on the ruble.
Looking ahead, the Bank signaled that it will take a cautious approach to resuming interest rate cuts. The Bank stated that monetary conditions are already close to neutral and that the transition to neutral monetary policy will likely take place in 2019, suggesting that the key rate will remain on hold for the rest of the year. A key interest rate of between 6.0%–7.0% is regarded as neutral. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 14 September 2018.
Met the why particular panelists see the key interest rate ending 2018 at 7.01%. In 2019, panelists see the Central Bank lowering the monetary policy rate further, with a Consensus Forecast for the end of the year of 6.62%.
Russia - Interest Rate Data
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||5.50||17.00||11.00||11.00||7.75|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Russia Interest Rate Chart
Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR).
|Bond Yield||7.88||0.13 %||Aug 07|
|Exchange Rate||63.50||-0.12 %||Aug 07|
|Stock Market||2,312||-1.03 %||Aug 07|
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August 13, 2018
Merchandise exports totaled USD 36.6 billion in June, which represented a solid 23.8% expansion from the USD 29.5 billion sum recorded in the same month last year.
July 27, 2018
At its 27 July meeting, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) decided to hold the key interest rate unchanged at 7.25% for the third consecutive meeting.
July 23, 2018
Merchandise exports totaled USD 36.5 billion in May, which represented a solid 29.2% expansion from the USD 28.3 billion sum recorded in the same month last year.
July 16, 2018
Industrial output growth eased in June, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).
July 11, 2018
In June, consumer prices rose 0.5% from the previous month, slightly above May’s 0.4% increase and market expectations of a 0.4% rise.