Exchange Rate in Russia
Russia - Exchange Rate (average of period)
U.S. sanctions pummel ruble
The imposition of new sanctions by the U.S. caused the ruble to dive in April and triggered a sharp sell-off of Russian financial assets. While the sell-off abated shortly after, the ruble has remained under pressure amid a general sell-off of emerging market assets. On 3 May, it ended the day at 63.0 per USD, a 9.2% depreciation since 5 April, the day before the sanctions were announced. The sanctions target several high-profile Russian businessmen and their affiliated companies, freezing their U.S. assets and banning Americans from conducting business with them. Moreover, U.S. investors were given a deadline to divest debt and equity holdings of the sanctioned companies. The sanctions notably targeted several global enterprises and have increased uncertainty over what future penalty measures could look like. They also coincide with a broader escalation of tensions between Russia and the United States, particularly over the conflict in Syria.
On top of a weaker ruble, the sanctions are casting a cloud on Russia’s broader economic prospects. Upside risks to inflation due to the currency’s depreciation prompted the Central Bank to pause its easing cycle in April, and a slower and more modest easing cycle could provide fewer tailwinds to growth. In addition, the depreciated currency and higher inflation could weigh on household spending, while the uncertain geopolitical environment could hurt investment. That said, the Central Bank has sufficient reserves that could act as a buffer if the ruble falls further, while outside of the sanctions economic data has been encouraging. Higher oil prices and low unemployment should provide a cushion for economic activity in the coming months.
Russia GDP Forecast
The Consensus Forecast from our panel of over 11 Russia analysts is for GDP growth of 1.7% this year. Next year, growth is seen broadly steady at 1.8%.
Russia - Exchange Rate (aop) Data
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||31.85||38.42||61.06||67.05||58.33|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Russia Exchange Rate (aop) Chart
Source: Thomson Reuters.
|Bond Yield||7.55||0.13 %||Jun 14|
|Exchange Rate||63.12||-0.12 %||Jun 14|
|Stock Market||2,253||-1.03 %||Jun 14|
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June 18, 2018
A second estimate of national accounts data released by Rosstat on 18 June confirmed that the economic recovery gained steam in the first quarter, following a sharp slowdown at the end of last year.
June 8, 2018
Merchandise exports totaled USD 36.2 billion in April, which represented a robust 38.9% expansion from the USD 26.1 billion sum recorded in the same month of the previous year.
June 5, 2018
In May, consumer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month, matching April’s reading and market expectations.
May 31, 2018
Industrial production picked up in April, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).
May 17, 2018
A preliminary estimate of national accounts data released by Rosstat on 16 May revealed that the Russian recovery got back on track in the first quarter after a sharp slowdown at the end of last year.