GDP in Peru
Peru - GDP (billions of U.S. Dollars)
GDP growth picks up notably in Q2
Economic growth accelerated considerably in the second quarter, coming in at 5.4% in annual terms. The reading marked the fastest pace of growth since Q4 2013 and was up from 3.1% in the first quarter. The second-quarter acceleration was primarily driven by stronger domestic demand.
Fixed investment expanded a stellar 8.6% in annual terms in Q2 on the back of rising private and public investment, picking up pace from Q1’s solid 5.4% increase. Private investment rose at the fastest clip in five years, propelled by improving terms of trade—particularly of mineral exports—and increasing business confidence. Public investment also gained steam, buoyed largely by a ramp up in spending on road infrastructure.
Similarly, private consumption expanded a robust 4.5% year-on-year, accelerating from the 3.2% increase recorded in Q1. Household spending was underpinned by healthy credit growth, rising employment and stronger consumer confidence. Meanwhile, government consumption grew a soft 1.1% year-on-year in Q2, moderating from Q1’s 3.2% rise.
On the external front, the sector’s contribution to growth improved from the previous quarter; nevertheless, it remained negative. Exports climbed 3.2% in year-on-year terms in Q2, broadly unchanged from Q1’s 3.1% rise. Reflecting still-healthy demand for capital goods, imports increased 6.3% in Q2, slightly below the 7.4% expansion logged in Q1. As a result, the external sector’s contribution to growth improved from minus 1.0 percentage point in Q1 to minus 0.6 percentage points in Q2.
Economic growth is expected to remain robust in the coming quarters, underpinned by solid domestic demand. The recent minimum wage hike, modest inflation and rising employment are seen supporting private consumption, while low borrowing costs and healthy credit growth should propel capital spending ahead. The main downside risk to the outlook stems from political instability, however.
Peru GDP Forecast
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect GDP to expand 3.8% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2019, the panel also sees the economy growing 3.8%.
Peru - GDP (USD bn) Data
|GDP (USD bn)||203||203||191||195||216|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||5.43||-0.60 %||Oct 15|
|Exchange Rate||3.33||-0.06 %||Oct 16|
|Stock Market||19,360||-0.23 %||Oct 16|
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October 16, 2018
Economic activity expanded 2.3% year-on-year in August, matching July’s reading.
October 11, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 11 October, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at an eight-year low of 2.75%, matching market expectations.
October 5, 2018
Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 173 million surplus in August, the lowest print in over one year, narrowing from July’s USD 536 million surplus as well as from the USD 532 million surplus recorded in the same month of last year. Exports declined 0.8% year-on-year in August, contrasting July’s strong 18.7% increase.
October 5, 2018
The business confidence indicator fell to 55.1 in September from August’s 58.5, although nevertheless remained comfortably above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. A broad-based deterioration in sub-indexes drove the decline in business sentiment.
October 5, 2018
Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima increased 0.19% month-on-month in September, from August’s 0.13% rise.