GDP per capita in Peru
Peru - GDP per capita (U.S. Dollars)
Growth sinks to two-year low in Q1
GDP growth in the first quarter of the year fell to 2.3%, which was less than half Q4 2018’s 4.7% expansion and marked the slowest increase in two years. Weaker domestic demand and a more fragile external sector led the deceleration.
Domestic demand braked from a 3.5% expansion in Q4 to 1.7% growth in Q1. Fixed investment growth slackened dramatically, falling to 1.0% in annual terms in Q1 from Q4’s 5.4% year-on-year expansion, weighed down by plunging public investment in infrastructure from both the central and the local governments. At the same time, government consumption swung from a 2.2% increase in Q4 to a 2.5% contraction in Q1, due to shrinking spending by local governments. Private investment, however, gained some steam, supported by rising investment in the mining sector and favorable financing conditions. Moreover, private consumption continued to expand solidly (Q1: +3.4%; Q4: +3.8%), underpinned by strong credit growth, rising wages and growing employment in the private sector.
The weakening external sector, which contributed 0.6 percentage points to growth in Q1 following the 1.3 percentage-point contribution in Q4, was also behind the deceleration in the first quarter. Exports rose just 1.6% in Q1, following Q4’s 2.9% expansion. While exports of fishing products increased sizably, foreign sales of mining and energy fell considerably. Meanwhile, imports contracted 0.5% in Q1 following the sharper 1.8% contraction in the previous quarter, reflecting cooling fixed investment.
Growth is set to decelerate this year but should remain healthy nonetheless. Continued job gains and steady credit growth should underpin consumer spending. Moreover, solid growth in exports of commodities, positive business sentiment and rising infrastructure spending should support fixed investment. Lingering trade tensions and a weak Chinese economy, however, cloud the outlook.
Peru GDP Forecast
Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.
Peru - GDP per capita (USD) Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||6,676||6,601||6,146||6,180||6,776|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||5.43||-0.60 %||Oct 15|
|Exchange Rate||3.35||-0.06 %||Jun 14|
|Stock Market||20,296||-0.23 %||Jun 14|
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June 18, 2019
Economic activity remained unchanged year-on-year in April, pulling the hand brake from March’s 3.2% increase.
June 13, 2019
At its monetary policy meeting on 13 June, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept the policy interest rate unchanged at an eight-year low of 2.75%, matching market expectations.
June 7, 2019
The business confidence indicator declined from April’s 55.9 to 52.9 in May, but nevertheless remained above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism, where it has been for over two years. May’s decline came on the back of worse assessments of current conditions, and of less rosy expectations on the economy as a whole and on the situation of the company.
June 7, 2019
Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 259 million surplus in April, narrowing from March’s USD 471 million surplus as well as from the USD 311 million surplus recorded in the same month of last year. Exports dipped 2.3% year-on-year in April, due to lower prices more than offsetting higher quantities, following March’s much sharper 11.7% plunge.
June 3, 2019
Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima rose 0.15% over the previous month in May, down from April’s 0.20% month-on-month rise.