Consumption in Peru
Peru - Consumption
GDP growth jumps in final quarter of 2018
Economic growth accelerated considerably in the fourth quarter, owing to stronger domestic and external demand. Annual GDP growth in the quarter rose to 4.8%, which doubled the third quarter’s 2.4% year-on-year expansion. The reading brings growth for 2018 as a whole to 4.0%, well above 2017’s 2.5% expansion.
Fixed investment growth jumped (Q4: +5.8% year-on-year; Q3: +1.0% yoy), boosted by surging public investment in road infrastructure and robust public spending linked to the Pan American Games. Private investment, meanwhile, recorded a healthy expansion, supported by rising investment in the mining sector and low interest rates. Additionally, private consumption gained steam, increasing 3.8% year-on-year following Q3’s 3.3% expansion. Household spending was underpinned by strong credit growth, rising wages and growing employment. Meanwhile, government consumption swung from a 0.7% dip in Q3 to a 2.2% increase in Q4, due to soaring spending from local governments. Overall, domestic demand accelerated from a 3.0% expansion in Q3 to 3.8% growth in Q4.
The external sector’s contribution to growth swung from minus 0.5 percentage points in Q3 to plus 1.1 percentage points in Q4. Exports rose 2.6% in Q4, contrasting Q3’s 0.6% contraction. Notable increases were recorded in exports of agricultural, fishing and textile products. Reflecting cooling demand for consumer durables and capital goods for transport and industry, imports contracted 1.7% in Q4, contrasting the 1.2% expansion logged in Q3.
Solid GDP growth will likely carry over into 2019, underpinned by robust domestic demand and healthy commodity exports. Strengthening investor sentiment, coupled with supportive credit growth, are expected to fuel business investment, especially in the mining sector, while infrastructure spending should also continue to increase. Furthermore, sturdy employment growth and more upbeat consumer confidence will buttress private consumption. A pronounced slowdown in China’s growth and lingering global trade tensions represent the main downward risks.
Peru GDP Forecast
Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 3.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.
Peru - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||5.9||4.2||4.9||2.7||2.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||5.43||-0.60 %||Oct 15|
|Exchange Rate||3.35||-0.06 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||20,067||-0.23 %||Jan 30|
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April 15, 2019
Economic activity expanded 2.1% year-on-year in February, picking up some pace from January’s subdued 1.6% increase, which had marked the weakest reading in over one year.
April 12, 2019
At its monetary policy meeting on 11 April, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept the policy interest rate unchanged at an eight-year low of 2.75%, matching market expectations.
April 6, 2019
The consumer confidence indicator published by GfK tumbled to 94 in March from 114 in February, which had marked the best result in over two years.
April 5, 2019
Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 326 million surplus in February, narrowing from January’s USD 449 million surplus and also lower than the USD 552 million surplus recorded in the same month of last year. Exports declined 3.8% year-on-year in February, due to a drop in prices, following January’s sharper 4.1% fall.
April 5, 2019
The business confidence indicator rose from February’s 58.5 to 59.6 in March, and thus moved further above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism, where it has been for almost two years. March’s improvement came chiefly on the back of better prospects on the general economic situation, as well as on demand prospects.