Paraguay Economic Forecast

Paraguay Economic Outlook

June 12, 2018

Available data points to a strong first quarter on the heels of last year’s investment- and export-led economic upturn, suggesting newly-elected Mario Abdo Benítez is likely to inherit a bustling economy when he takes the reins as president on 15 August. Economic activity ticked up for a sixth consecutive month in March, to a one-year high. Meanwhile, soybean export volumes remained elevated in Q1 despite adverse growing conditions, filling the supply gap left by neighboring Argentina’s poor haul this year. In June, fresh Mercosur-E.U. trade talks got underway in hopes of finally closing a long-sought-after tariffs deal which could eventually eliminate duty on shipments between the customs blocs.

Paraguay Economic Growth

Resilient agricultural output and heavy investment are expected to support key export industries and sustain the economy’s momentum this year. Responsible fiscal spending should underpin investor confidence, although widespread poverty and corruption will remain major concerns. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 4.0% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2019.

Paraguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.66.76.86.97.0
GDP per capita (USD)4,4224,6364,0343,9924,233
GDP (USD bn)29.030.927.327.429.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)14.04.73.04.04.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.45.32.6-  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.53.81.90.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.98.82.07.911.5
Unemployment Rate7.96.55.57.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.1-1.7-1.5-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.417.620.022.824.1
Money (annual variation in %)17.57.85.88.116.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.23.13.94.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.75.03.14.13.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.90.15.04.2-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)11.488.969.638.577.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,5984,6365,7825,8485,588
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,3154,4655,2115,6835,632
Current Account (% of GDP)2.1-0.2-1.11.5-1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.6-0.1-0.30.4-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.71.00.61.40.6
Exports (USD billion)13.613.111.911.212.1
Imports (USD billion)11.912.111.39.811.5
Exports (annual variation in %)16.7-3.7-16.62.18.3
Imports (annual variation in %)7.81.1-14.6-5.117.7
International Reserves (USD)5.96.96.27.16.7
External Debt (% of GDP)54.253.459.259.6-  

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Paraguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate5,6910.18 %Jun 19
Exchange Rate5,6910.18 %Jun 19

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