Paraguay Economic Forecast

Paraguay Economic Outlook

September 12, 2018

The latest available data indicates that economic growth remained upbeat in the second quarter, despite decelerating slightly in June amid increasing economic turmoil in the region. A solid external sector propelled growth, led by surging soybean exports as average exports growth hit a five-year high in the quarter. Meanwhile, soaring private credit and receding inflation bode well for household consumption in Q2. In the political arena, Mario Abdo Benítez was inaugurated as the president of Paraguay on 15 August. Although he has pledged to fight corruption and reduce poverty, the new president is expected to retain business-friendly economic policy favoured by his predecessor.

Paraguay Economic Growth

Growth should remain solid this year thanks to elevated investment activity and sturdy external demand, bolstered by Paraguay’s agricultural sector. Nevertheless, notwithstanding the new president’s economic and political agenda, widespread poverty and corruption will remain key concerns in the medium term. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in 2019.

Paraguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.66.76.86.97.0
GDP per capita (USD)4,4224,6364,0343,9924,233
GDP (USD bn)29.030.927.327.429.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)14.04.73.04.04.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.45.32.6-  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.53.81.90.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.98.82.07.911.5
Unemployment Rate7.96.55.57.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.1-1.7-1.5-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.417.620.022.824.1
Money (annual variation in %)17.57.85.88.116.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.23.13.94.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.75.03.14.13.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.90.15.04.2-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)11.488.969.638.577.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,5984,6365,7825,8485,588
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,3154,4655,2115,6835,632
Current Account (% of GDP)2.1-0.2-1.11.5-1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.6-0.1-0.30.4-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.71.00.61.40.6
Exports (USD billion)13.613.111.911.212.1
Imports (USD billion)11.912.111.39.811.5
Exports (annual variation in %)16.7-3.7-16.62.18.3
Imports (annual variation in %)7.81.1-14.6-5.117.7
International Reserves (USD)5.96.96.27.16.7
External Debt (% of GDP)54.253.459.259.6-  

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Paraguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate5,8570.18 %Sep 20

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