Consumption in New Zealand
New Zealand - Consumption
Growth accelerates in Q4 2018
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, the economy grew 0.6% in quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted terms in the fourth quarter of last year, up from Q3’s 0.3% outturn and in line with analysts’ expectations. However, on a year-on-year basis, the economy slowed more than expected, coming in at 2.3%, which marks the lowest print in five years (Q3: +2.6% year-on-year). Looking at 2018 as a whole, GDP growth moderated to 2.8%, following 2017’s 3.1% expansion.
The fourth-quarter uptick was chiefly led by the service industry, which recorded the sharpest increase amid strong activity in the retail and accommodation sectors (Q4: +0.9% quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted; Q3: +0.5% qoq s.a.). In addition, goods-producing industries rebounded from a quarter earlier (Q4: +0.2% qoq s.a.; Q3: -0.9% qoq s.a.), powered by sturdy construction activity. However, manufacturing and utilities supply contracted for a consecutive quarter, while primary industries contracted 0.8% in Q4, a marked contrast from Q3’s 2.3% expansion, owing to plummeting mining and agricultural activity.
On the expenditure side, quarter-on-quarter private consumption accelerated in the fourth quarter. In addition, fixed investment and government spending both rebounded in the same period. On the external side, exports bounced back in Q4, whereas imports contracted for a second consecutive quarter.
Growth is seen easing this year amid a broad-base deceleration of domestic demand and an uncertain international backdrop. Notably, investment is set to wane as tighter financial conditions and reduced profitability weigh on business sentiment. Meanwhile, the slowdown in China and Europe is set to erode demand for dairy products, New Zealand’s main export.
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.7% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
New Zealand - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||3.5||3.2||3.8||5.0||4.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
New Zealand Facts
|Bond Yield||1.71||1.20 %||Jun 13|
|Exchange Rate||0.66||-1.69 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||4,461||0.11 %||Jun 13|
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May 31, 2019
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator declined to 119.3 in May (April: 123.2), notching a six-month low but remaining well above the 110-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism among consumers. Consumers were more pessimistic about current conditions in May from a month earlier, reflecting reluctance to buy big-ticket household items as well as a dimer perception of their current financial situation.
May 30, 2019
The ANZ bank business outlook indicator rose by 5.5 points in May, with a net 32.0% firms reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate this year.
May 8, 2019
On 8 May, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 1.50%.
May 1, 2019
The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, from Q3’s 4.3%, as had been expected by market analysts.
April 26, 2019
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator rose to 123.2 in April, from March’s 121.8.