GDP in Mexico
Mexico - GDP (billions of U.S. Dollars)
Mexico’s economy slows in Q1 on industrial- and services-sector woes
A comprehensive estimate for growth in the first quarter confirmed weaker-than-expected economic activity at the outset of the year. In annual terms, unadjusted output grew 1.2% year-on-year (previously reported: +1.3% year-on-year), down markedly from 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year and a couple of notches below analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter output contracted (Q1: -0.2% quarter-on-quarter s.a.; Q4 2018: +0.2% qoq s.a.) amid a slump in industrial-sector activity.
For the most part, supply-side dynamics went unaltered from the preliminary estimate. Industrial-sector output (Q1: -0.7% yoy; Q4 2018: -0.9% yoy) fell for the third time in five quarters on declining oil and gas production, as well as on weaker construction activity amid budget cuts. Services-sector output, on the other hand, decelerated considerably (Q1: +1.9% yoy; Q4 2018: +2.7% yoy) despite strong wage growth and resilient consumer confidence; analysts blamed so-called political business cycle. Agricultural-sector output, lastly, jumped in the quarter (Q1: +5.8% yoy; Q4 2018: +2.9% yoy).
Commenting on the first-quarter outturn, Gabriel Lozano, chief economist at JPMorgan, noted:
“Economic data released today did little to change our view on the recent performance of the economy. […] The main conclusion out of today’s reports is that momentum in services is not particularly strong, and [industrial production] remains trapped amidst contractions in oil-production and budget-related declines in government spending, the latter affecting construction significantly. […] Recent economic dynamics in the U.S. suggest the little hope we had for a healthy rebound given the strong links between Mexico and the U.S. is increasingly unlikely, and if domestic consumption remains lackluster as well […] we will be running out of options: We are maintaining our call for 1.4% growth this year but the downside risks are not negligible.”
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast analysts see growth at 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.
Mexico - GDP (USD bn) Data
|GDP (USD bn)||1,275||1,312||1,168||1,076||1,152|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||7.67||-0.24 %||Jun 13|
|Exchange Rate||19.20||-0.29 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||43,483||0.12 %||Jun 13|
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June 11, 2019
Mexico and the United States reached a tenuous agreement on 7 June to avoid crippling U.S.-imposed tariffs on all Mexican imports that had been set to take effect only days later.
June 7, 2019
Consumer prices declined 0.29% from a month earlier in May, contrasting the 0.05% month-on-month increase in April.
June 4, 2019
Consumer confidence fell again in May, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) coming in at 111.0 points, down from 112.8 points in April.
June 3, 2019
Economic activity remained lackluster in March.
June 3, 2019
Remittances totaled USD 2.9 billion in April (March: USD 2.9 billion), a 3.6% increase from the same month a year ago (March: +7.8% year-on-year).